Market News

Soybeans mixed to start the week

Soybeans were mixed, with nearby contracts down and deferred months up. Beans adjusted spreads, continuing to monitor tariff talks. Not a lot of public progress on that front recently, but negotiations with several nations are reportedly ongoing. Brazil’s harvest is nearing the finish, while Argentina’s is ongoing, albeit with some rain delays. Soybean export inspections were down on the week, up on the year, and are slightly ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA projections for the current marketing year. The top destinations were China and Germany. China’s General Administration of Customs says March soybean imports were 3.503 million tons, the lowest for the month in 17 years, with cumulative 2025 imports 8% behind 2024. Stateside, as of Sunday, 2% of U.S. soybeans are planted, matching the five-year average. Soybean meal and oil were down on profit taking ahead of Tuesday’s NOPA member crush numbers for March. Ahead of that report, the average estimate is for a crush of 197.602 million bushels, which would be up from February and an all-time high for the month.

Corn was modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling. Corn is watching planting weather, with rain chances in some areas for most of this week, with the potential for more widespread coverage closer to the weekend. The USDA says 4% of U.S. corn is planted, compared to 5% on average. Rain in South America is helping Brazil’s second crop but delaying harvest in Argentina. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are out May 12^th, with CONAB’s new outlook for Brazil set for May 15^th. Export inspections were strong, primarily to Mexico and Japan. Japan did buy 120,000 tons of 2024/25 U.S. corn ahead of the open. APK-Inform estimates Ukraine’s 2025 corn crop at 29.2 million tons, which would be up 18% from 2024, with exports seen at 24.5 million tons.

The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling. Many U.S. winter wheat growing areas are expected to see some form of precipitation this week. That’s good news for the southern Plains, but parts of the eastern Midwest and Delta are excessively wet. The trade is also monitoring spring wheat planting in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada. For winter wheat, 47% of the crop is rated good to excellent, down 1% on the week and 8% on the year, with 8% of the crop headed, matching the usual pace. For spring wheat, 7% of the crop is planted, in-line with the normal rate for mid-April. Wheat export inspections were above a week ago, but just below a year ago, with Mexico and Japan leading way. At about the halfway point of the final quarter of wheat’s 2024/25 marketing year, the pace is behind what’s needed to meet USDA expectations. APK-Informa projects Ukraine’s 2025 wheat crop at 21.5 million tons, 1% less than 2024, with exports of 15 million tons. Reports out of Russia have more than 90% of winter crops in good condition. Near-term conditions in the Black Sea region generally look dry.