Market News

Soybeans rebound as Trump revives trade optimism with China

Soybeans were modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. Beans continue to wait for end-of-the-month tariff talks between the U.S. and China. The renewed optimism followed social media activity by President Trump over the weekend that dampened some of the concerns following an earlier social media post by the President late last week. The ongoing tariff tiff between the U.S. and China continues to keep Beijing focused on beans from Brazil. Chinese customs data for September had imports at a monthly record of 12.87 million tons, with a significant portion of that sourced from South America. The U.S. harvest should be well past the halfway point and planting weather in South America looks good. Soybean meal futures were lower and soybean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads. Bean oil had additional support from the bounce in crude oil, while meal had extra pressure from large domestic supplies.

Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling. Corn is monitoring U.S. harvest activity, most estimates are around 40% complete, with rain in the forecast for parts of the region during the course of this week. Longer-term outlooks have warm temperatures in much of the Corn Belt for a big chunk of the back half of the month. Corn is also monitoring planting weather in Argentina and Brazil, with good rainfall reported over the weekend in some of their key growing areas. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil’s crops is out Tuesday, along with weekly export inspections, which were delayed by Monday’s federal holiday. Last week’s export inspections update was solid and while it won’t replace the USDA’s weekly export sales numbers lost to the shutdown, the numbers should reflect the ongoing strong global demand for U.S. corn.

The wheat complex was mostly lower with Chicago and Kansas City weak and Minneapolis mixed. Rain has delayed winter wheat planting in some areas but boosted soil moisture, which will be beneficial during development. Just how far along is a big question, with the USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition report suspended for the duration of the partial shutdown of the federal government. While contracts are oversold, rising global supplies are applying consistent pressure. That followed increased production in Canada, Europe, and Russia, and includes solid new crop production expectations in Argentina and Australia. SovEcon now has Russia’s 2025 wheat crop at 87.8 million tons, 600,000 more than the last guess thanks to record yields in Siberia. APK-Inform sees Ukraine’s 2025/26 harvest at 59.1 million tons, including more than 22 million tons of wheat and nearly 30 million tons of corn, with the firm also raising their export outlook.