Market News

Soybeans rise, corn and wheat fall ahead of WASDE report

Soybeans were modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. Brazil’s harvest is nearing completion, with record harvest all but confirmed, while early harvest activity is ongoing in Argentina. Stateside, the trade’s monitoring any potential adjustments to planted area. One of the big questions right now is export demand for U.S. beans from China, with high-level face-to-face negotiations not expected for more than a month. The USDA’s weekly export sales numbers are out Thursday morning. Brazil’s Ag Ministry says soybean exports for March were 14.518 million tons, 1% lower than last year. Soybean oil futures were pressured by a drop in crude oil following a ceasefire agreement in Iran. It remains to be seen how long that ceasefire will hold and while the Strait of Hormuz is at least partially open, Iran wants tolls for safe passage and there’s been significant damage to production, refining capacity, and storage in the region that might take months if not years to fix. Soybean meal futures were supported by short covering and product spread trade.

Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling. Corn saw some spillover from crude oil, while watching weather in South America and early U.S. planting. For Argentina, harvest conditions look mostly good. For Brazil, some of the second crop could use rainfall, with CONAB’s next look at Brazil’s crops out on the 13^th. For the U.S., while there are some concerns about planting conditions in parts of the Corn Belt, it is early. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production last week averaged 1.116 million barrels per day, up 41,000 on the week and 95,000 on the year, with stocks of 26.053 million barrels, 62,000 higher than the previous week, but 981,000 lower than a year ago, and exports averaged 203,000 barrels per day, an increase of 80,000 from the week before and 29,000 from this time last year. Brazil’s Ag Ministry says March corn exports were 983,000 tons, up 12.8% on the year.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Medium-term forecasts have improved rain chances for parts of the U.S. Plains, which, if realized, would benefit the hard red winter crop. In contrast, U.S. soft red winter conditions generally look good. Wheat is also watching planting conditions in the U.S. and Canada, in addition to Australia, and post-emergence development in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. Russian railway operator Rusagrotrans projects April wheat exports at 3.7 million tons, which would be 55% larger than last year, while consulting firm Argus sees 2026/27 wheat production at 88.7 million tons, up from last November’s guess of 86.5 million on yield improvements, acreage changes, and better than expected crop conditions during a recent tour. The USDA is expected to make minimal adjustments to the domestic side of the grain and oilseed balance sheets in Thursday’s supply and demand update.