Market News

Soybeans see another round of gains

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. Domestic demand continues to be solid, with strong crush margins, reflected by Wednesday’s USDA crush numbers for September. Export sales were down on the week, but still over a million tons, with China buying the bulk of the total, followed, distantly, by South Korea. Near-term U.S. harvest conditions generally look favorable in most of the Midwest and Plains, while South American weather continues to be mixed. ANEC says Brazil exported 5.5 million tons of soybeans in October 2023, compared to 3.8 million in October 2022. Updated USDA supply and demand estimates and CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil are both scheduled for Thursday, November 9^th. Soybean meal was mixed, adjusting spreads, and bean oil was up on demand expectations.

Corn was modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling after spending most of the session mixed. Corn is monitoring U.S. harvest activity, with yields better than expected in parts of the region, along with South American planting and development weather. Stateside, much of the Corn Belt is expected to see a drier near-term pattern. In South America, parts of southern Brazil remain excessively wet, while portions of central and northern Brazil are too dry. Arguably, the bigger issue for Brazil is how the widely varied soybean planting conditions could impact second crop corn planting. Argentina is being helped out by better recent rainfall. Export sales were below a week ago, still featuring strong demand from Mexico, with unknown destinations taking the second slot. ANEC says Brazil’s October 2023 corn exports were 8.5 million tons, compared to 6.8 million last year. Brazil and, to an extent, Ukraine are still the big U.S. competitors for corn export business.

The wheat complex was mixed, mostly modestly higher. Wheat remains oversold, but it’s hard to generate momentum with the slow pace of export sales. Sales were sharply lower last week with no reported demand from China despite the recent rumors. The leading buyers were Thailand and Taiwan. China has bought a substantial amount of wheat recently following some crop damage, but it’s been from Australia and France. SovEcon did lower its 2023/24 wheat export outlook for Russia to 48.8 million tons, citing a recent slowdown. The trade is monitoring late U.S. winter wheat planting, with the crop in much better than a year ago shape thanks to recent rain in the southern U.S. Plains. Wheat is also waiting for early yield results out of Argentina and Australia.