Market News

Soybeans see gains, focused on potential demand from China

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. The USDA made no changes to U.S. ending stocks, while raising production for Brazil to 180 million tons, still just short of some major private projections. Quality is a concern in some areas because of heavy rain during harvest activity. CONAB’s updated estimate for Brazil is out Thursday. The USDA’s guess for Paraguay was also hiked modestly, up a half a million tons to 11.5 million. The trade’s watching that harvest in Brazil, along with rain chances for Argentina, while waiting for some fresh demand news from China. The USDA left 2025/26 imports by China at 112 million tons. Soybean meal and oil futures followed beans higher. There were no changes to the domestic balance sheets for soybean products either.

Corn was steady to firm. U.S. corn ending stocks were down on the month due to higher exports, with no adjustments to production or exports for South America. That rise in U.S. exports was at least somewhat expected and the 2025/26 carryout projections remains above 2.1 billion bushels. If there was a surprise, it’s the USDA not lowering domestic feed use due to tight livestock supplies. The world balance sheet changes were minor, an increase for European Union production and a decrease for imports against a smaller crop for Mexico and higher imports. Ukraine’s corn export guess was lowered slightly. Corn is monitoring development conditions in Argentina, in addition to the first crop harvest and second crop planting paces in Brazil. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol numbers are out Wednesday.

The wheat complex was mixed. U.S. wheat ending stocks were modestly higher, rising 5 million bushels to 931 million on a cut in food use, while world stocks and production were lower, but exports were up. On the production side of things, the USDA raised estimates for Argentina and the United Kingdom, but not enough to cancel out a slight drop from other, unlisted nations. For exports, there were upward adjustments for Argentina and Canada, offsetting a cut for the European Union. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out March 10^th. Winter wheat growing areas are warming up, which could kickstart dormancy and leave crops vulnerable to another cold snap, with more widespread precipitation in the forecast for parts of the Plains later this month. The trade is also monitoring overwintering weather in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. France’s AgriMer says soft winter wheat planted area was up on the year, noting favorable growing conditions.