Market News

Soybeans see modestly higher move on renewed gains in crude oil

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying. The USDA raised domestic crush, but cut exports, leaving U.S. ending stocks unchanged, with minor adjustments for South America. The USDA did raise production and exports for Paraguay, also increasing its export outlook for Brazil. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil will be released on the 13^th. Imports by China held at 112 million tons. President Trump and President Xi are expected to meet face-to-face to talk trade in just over a month. Stateside, beans are monitoring weather as planting activity moves north. Soybean export sales of 10.854 million bushels were below average. China and Japan were the leading buyers, with a notable cancelation by unknown destinations. The Rosario Grain Exchange left its soybean production guess for Argentina at 48 million tons, with solid yields offsetting a decline in harvested area. Soybeans, and bean oil, also saw spillover from crude oil, which was supported by the lack of clarity about the situation in Iran and the Middle East. Soybean meal was up on a higher tone in the soybean complex.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. U.S. ending stocks were unchanged and the USDA didn’t make a lot of world supply and demand changes. Production and exports were up for Russia and South Africa, with no major changes to global imports, aside from slight cuts for Canada and Southeast Asia. The Rosario Grain Exchange now has Argentina’s corn crop at a record 67 million tons, 5 million above their last guess due to planted area surprises and 15 million more than the current USDA projection. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out May 10^th and will include the first round of official 2026/27 projections. U.S. planting weather generally looks favorable, with recent rainfall having a positive impact in many areas. Weekly U.S. corn export sales were a little bit larger than average at 53.592 million bushels, with Japan and Mexico topping the list, against a sizable cancelation by unknown destinations. Another 448,795 tons were sold to Mexico for 2026/27 delivery. Ahead of Thursday’s open, South Korea picked up 136,000 tons of 2025/26 U.S. corn.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. The USDA raised U.S. ending stocks, mostly due to higher imports, with world numbers largely as expected. Global stocks rose again, and when China is removed from the mix, the supply is record large. Production estimates were up for Argentina, the European Union, and Russia, while export projections were higher for Russia and Kazakhstan, lower for Australia and Ukraine. If there was a surprise, it was the USDA making a big cut in domestic use by India. The trade is monitoring rain chances in the U.S. Plains, potentially benefitting hard red winter. The U.S. Drought Monitor says 68% of U.S. winter wheat growing areas are in some state of drought. Weekly U.S. export sales were above the week before, but less than average at 6 million bushels, primarily to Venezuela and Japan, with a big cancelation by unknown destinations. 3.333 million bushels of U.S. wheat were sold for 2026/27 delivery, mostly to Mexico and the Philippines.