Market News

Soybeans see more gains, corn, wheat finish higher

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying. The trade’s watching harvest activity, expecting some areas to make good progress, but Hurricane Helene will cause more delays in the south and east. That storm is expected to make landfall later this week and move north and west. Hot, dry weather could limit planting in parts of Brazil and significant delays would push back second crop corn planting. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out October 11^th, with CONAB’s updated projections for Brazil set for the 15^th. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentina’s 2024/25 crop at 52 million tons. There’s been more talk, but no confirmation, of China buying U.S. soybeans this week ahead of the Golden Week holiday, which starts October 1^st. Domestic crush margins remain bullish. Soybean meal and oil were up on the higher tone in beans. Bean oil also had another round of support from the strength in palm oil.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying, rallying from the early losses. Corn is keeping an eye on U.S. harvest progress and yield results, in addition to the planting conditions in Argentina and Brazil. With planting just under 10%, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates 2024/25 corn production for Argentina at 47 million tons. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production last week averaged 994,000 barrels a day, the lowest since May, for a decline of 55,000 on the week and 15,000 on the year. Stocks of 23.524 million barrels were 261,000 below the prior week, but 1.476 million above a year ago. Ethanol exports of 87,000 barrels a day were 64,000 less than the week before, but 10,000 more than last year. Mexico purchased 180,000 tons of new crop U.S. corn ahead of Wednesday’s open. The USDA’s weekly U.S. sales numbers are out Thursday morning.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying after spending most of the session mixed. More U.S. soft red winter planting delays are likely due to Hurricane Helene, while most of the hard red winter region should see solid progress. Globally, SovEcon is anticipating an 11-year low for winter wheat planting due to ongoing weather issues and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange sees 2024/25 wheat production in Argentina at 18.6 million tons. The trade is also keeping an eye on winter wheat planting in Ukraine and crop development conditions in Australia. The port strike in Canada could boost U.S. exports. The USDA’s 2024 wheat production update is out Monday, September 30^th, along with quarterly grain stocks.