Market News

Soybeans see more support from demand talk, Brazil quality questions

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. The trade is watching weather in South America and waiting for more signs of another big round of demand from China. There’s nothing concrete, but the trade seems to be expecting some positive news regarding the U.S./China trade relationship in the near future. CONAB increased its already record large estimate for Brazil’s crop, despite quality concerns due to heavy rain at harvest. Production is now projected at 177.985 million tons, which would be up 3.8% from last year. However, that is still below a number of estimates, including the USDA, with that updated guess out March 10^th. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its estimate for Argentina’s crop 1 million tons to 48 million, while noting rain will be critical during the current stages of development. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says Argentina’s good to excellent rating on beans fell another 8% to 32% good to excellent, with a roughly equal amount in poor to very poor shape, U.S. export sales were a marketing year low for the second consecutive week at 10.4 million bushels. China was the leading buyer, followed by Egypt, but purchases in general were routine and there was a big cancelation by unknown destinations. Japan bought a small amount of U.S. beans for delivery next marketing year. Ahead of Thursday’s open, Egypt picked up 108,000 tons of 2025/26 U.S. beans. Soybean meal and oil futures followed beans higher.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying. CONAB lowered its guess for Brazil’s crop 0.3% from January, but overall production should still be large at a combined 138.448 million tons, which would be 1.9% less than a year ago. CONAB did raise its first crop guess to 26.7 million tons, while lowering second crop to 109.263 million tons and third crop to 2.485 million tons. The first crop harvest and second crop planting in Brazil are both around 20% complete. The Rosario Grain Exchange maintained its production guess for Argentina at 62 million tons. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 43% of Argentina’s corn crop is in good to excellent shape, down 1% on the week, with 75% of the crop pollinating and harvest starting to get underway. Near-term forecasts generally show more rain chances for dry parts of Argentina through the end of the month. Export sales were up sharply on the week at 81.5 million bushels, with Japan and South Korea leading the way. The USDA says an additional 2.4 million bushels were sold to Japan for 2026/27 delivery.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying. Wheat export sales were larger than average at 17.9 million bushels, primarily to the Philippines and Mexico, with another 500,000 bushels to the Philippines and Colombia for 2026/27 delivery. Export demand, at least to regular U.S. customers, continues to hold up well in the face of relatively high prices. Forecasts have improved near-term rain chances for parts of the U.S. Plains, but it could miss some of the drier areas. Soft red winter growing areas in the eastern Midwest are expected to generally see better coverage. While there are concerns about potential damage if U.S. winter wheat growing areas turn cold again and there has been talk about freeze damage in Russia, those are hard to quantify until after emergence. Wheat’s also watching overwintering conditions in Europe and the Black Sea region.