Market News

Soybeans see profit taking as China’s tariffs keep U.S. prices at a premium

Soybeans were sharply lower on profit taking and technical selling. Contracts were overbought after the recent rally, which, along with China maintaining a 13% tariff on U.S. beans, even without the retaliatory tariffs, have U.S. prices at a significant premium to Brazil. China will buy more soybeans from the U.S. this year and over the next three years under this trade deal framework, but there are questions about timing. Daily sales announcements and the weekly export sales report are still suspended by the partial shutdown of the federal government. Soybeans are also watching the tail end of this year’s U.S. harvest, along with planting and development conditions in South America. Soybean meal and oil futures were lower on the generally bearish sentiment in grains and oilseeds, also in an attempt to make prices more competitive on the global market.

Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling. Late U.S. harvest weather and South American planting conditions generally look favorable. The U.S. is starting to see more export competition and contracts have run into overhead resistance at times this week. Still, U.S. export inspections remain solid and corn for ethanol use is strong, even if some areas are reportedly using sorghum for production. The trade will get some fresh fundamental news on the 14^th, when the USDA releases a set of supply, demand, and production numbers. Those production numbers will include field-based survey data for the U.S. crop. However, any significant adjustments to this year’s crop might wait until January. CONAB will also issue its updated outlook for Brazil on the 14^th.

The wheat complex was mostly lower, down on profit taking and technical selling, except for the firm finish in December Minneapolis. It looks like China did buy U.S. wheat this week, but the purchase was smaller than expected. China reportedly bought around 120,000 tons, one cargo of soft white winter and one cargo of hard red spring, to be delivered in December. The U.S. winter wheat crop should be nearly fully planted at this point and is approaching dormancy. The U.S. Drought Monitor says 38% of U.S. winter wheat growing areas are currently impacted by some form of drought, slightly lower than last week. Wheat is also watching the various stages of planting, development, and harvest in Argentina, Australia, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, among other areas of the globe. India is expected to keep planted area roughly unchanged in 2026/27.