Market News

Soybeans see solid gains, corn firm

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying. Dry weather in parts of Brazil could lead to planting delays or even reduced acreage. Stateside, the USDA says 65% of U.S. soybeans are in good to excellent shape, unchanged on the week, with 97% of the crop at the pod setting stage and 25% dropping leaves, both ahead of the five-year averages. The mostly dry August and dry start to September for much of the region is expected to trim yields. China bought another 132,000 tons of new crop U.S. soybeans Monday morning as U.S. prices remain competitive and crush margins continue to be bullish. Soybean meal was mixed, mostly higher, adjusting spreads, and bean oil was up on the higher moves in soybeans and crude oil. The first export inspections report of the 2024/25 marketing year looks a little bearish, down on the week and the year, mainly to China and Indonesia. China’s anti-dumping investigation into canola imports from Canada is underway.

Corn was modestly higher on fund and technical buying. Corn is monitoring early U.S. harvest activity and planting conditions in Argentina and Brazil. As of Sunday, in the U.S., 5% of U.S. corn is harvested, compared to 3% on average, with 95% at the dough making stage, 74% dented, and 29% mature. 64% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, down 1% from last week. In South America, Safras e Mercado estimates Brazil’s 2024/25 corn crop at 133.57 million tons, compared to 125.56 million in 2023/24, expecting better yields to cancel out a slight decline in planted area. The USDA’s updated supply and demand numbers and CONAB’s new outlook for Brazil’s crops are out Thursday. The first corn export inspections report of the new year showed a week-to-week decline, but a year-to-year gain, with Mexico and Spain leading the pack. Cash basis levels are up due to lower levels on the Mississippi River, which has delayed movement and led to increased freight costs. That could cut into export demand for U.S. corn, but a tropical storm expected to move into the Delta and southern Corn Belt later this week could provide some relief.

The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago up and Kansas City and Minneapolis down. The spring wheat harvest is nearly complete, while U.S. winter wheat planting is moving forward.

For spring wheat, 85% of the crop is harvested, compared to the normal rate of 83%. For winter wheat, 6% has been planted, matching the usual pace. Minneapolis picked up additional pressure from larger than expected all wheat stocks in Canada. The improved export demand for U.S. wheat is a background factor. In the first export inspections report in the new quarter of the current marketing year, wheat was below the previous week, but above a year ago, primarily to Mexico and Nigeria. That improvement in export demand followed yield and quality issues in France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine, with some early concerns about conditions in Argentina. Egypt’s prime minister reiterated plans to fill the remaining 3.5 million tons of Cairo’s recent 3.8-million-ton wheat tender.