Market News

Soybeans see strong gains ahead of WASDE

Soybeans were sharply higher on short covering and technical buying. The trade was watching crop weather and getting ready for Tuesday’s USDA numbers. The USDA says 68% of U.S. soybeans are good to excellent, down 1% on the week, with 91% blooming and 71% at the pod setting stage. Part of Monday’s gains can be linked to President Trump insisting on social media that China is short of soybeans and will need to quadruple their imports from the U.S. By most estimates, China has a lot of soybeans on hand after the recent strong demand for Brazilian supplies. China has yet to purchase any new crop U.S. beans because of that strong demand from Brazil and the tariff tensions with the U.S. The new U.S. tariffs against China were scheduled to go into effect Thursday but will now be delayed another 90 days. There was also spillover from bean and palm oils on biofuels demand expectations. Soybean meal futures were up on the strength in the soy complex. U.S. export inspections were down on the week, up on the year, mainly to Mexico and Germany.

Corn was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. The USDA’s expected to have a large average yield projection in Tuesday’s production update. There was also ongoing support from the generally solid demand. As of Sunday, 72% of the U.S. crop is in good to excellent condition, 1% lower, 94% is silking, 58% is at the dough making stage, and 14% has dented. Export inspections were strong, above last week and last year, primarily to Mexico and Japan. There’s some sentiment that the USDA will raise its old crop export estimate for corn Tuesday. Despite the recent hot streak for new crop exports, any significant changes to the demand side of the balance sheet will wait until after the start of the 2025/26 marketing year September 1^st. APK-Inform now has Ukraine’s corn crop at 27.5 million tons, an increase of 600,000 from their prior projection. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says corn exports since the start of the marketing year are 706,000 tons, a drop of 62% from a year ago. Brazil’s second corn crop harvest is close to wrapping up, with CONAB’s updated outlook set for this Thursday, the 14^th.

The wheat complex was mixed. Early spring wheat harvest activity could see rain delays this week, from parts of the northern U.S. Plains into the Canadian Prairies. For spring wheat, 49% of the crop is rated good to excellent, improving 1%, and 16% is harvested, compared to the five-year average of 22%. For winter wheat, 90% of the crop is harvested, compared to 91% on average. Wheat is also monitoring winter wheat harvest activity in Europe, Ukraine, and Russia, along with conditions in Argentina and Australia. The trade is expecting minimal changes to U.S. and world wheat ending stocks Tuesday, with domestic and global production estimates also likely to see at least some adjustment. The numbers are out Tuesday at Noon Eastern/11 Central. Wheat inspections were under the previous week and a year ago, Mexico and Vietnam led the way, with the 2025/26 pace just ahead of 2024/25. APK-Inform lowered their wheat guess for Ukraine 900,000 tons to 19.5 million and cut exports 600,000 tons to 13.9 million. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says wheat exports since July 1^st are 1 million tons, 49% behind the year ago pace.