Market News

Soybeans shoot higher ahead of drier weather

Soybeans were higher on speculative and technical buying. The trade continues to monitor development weather, with a warmer, drier pattern on tap for some areas, potentially impacting yield. The USDA says 68% of U.S. soybeans are in good to excellent condition, unchanged on the week, with 95% of the crop blooming and 81% at the pod setting stage, both close to the respective five-year averages. If there’s been a bright side to the decline in price, it’s been an uptick in export demand for U.S. beans during the fall and winter timeframe. Ahead of Monday’s open, China bought 332,000 tons of U.S. beans and unknown destinations purchased 110,000 tons, both for 2024/25 delivery. Near-term, Brazil continues to hold a price advantage. Export inspections were up on the week and the year, with Germany and Egypt leading the pack. Soybean meal and oil were lower on the prospects of some yield loss.

Corn was higher on speculative and technical buying. Corn is monitoring late development weather, which looks favorable in most of the region, but could be warm and dry in some areas this week. As of Sunday, 67% of U.S. corn is called good to excellent, steady with the week before, with 97% of the crop silking, 74% at the dough making stage, 30% dented, and 5% mature, all very near or slightly ahead of average. Feed, fuel, and export demand continue to be positives. U.S. corn export inspections remain ahead of the pace needed to meet projections for the 2023/24 marketing year, which runs through the end of August. Last week, U.S. inspections were above the previous week and last year, mainly to Mexico and Japan. The USDA is projecting a very large new crop carryout, over 2 billion bushels, but demand could pull that down. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out September 12^th.

The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago mostly firm, Kansas City modestly higher, and Minneapolis modestly lower. Export demand for U.S. wheat has improved, but Russia continues to hold the lowest global price. The trade’s monitoring spring wheat development weather and harvest conditions in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada, along with the tail end of this year’s U.S. winter wheat harvest. For winter wheat, 96% of the crop is harvested, compared to the normal rate of 95%, with most of what’s left in the Pacific Northwest. For spring wheat, 73% of the crop is reported as good to excellent, up 1%, and 31% is harvested, compared to 36% on average. Almost a full quarter into the 2024/25 marketing year, wheat export inspections were below the prior week, but above a year ago and still on pace to meet the USDA’s estimate for the current marketing year. The top destinations were Indonesia and Japan. Export demand for U.S. wheat has improved and could improve further due to crop and quality issues in Argentina, France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine. Near-term, a possible rail strike in Canada could impact movement.