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Soybeans up, corn and wheat down after quiet March WASDE report
Soybeans was higher on short covering and technical buying. The USDA made minimal changes to U.S. and world numbers, while CONAB’s next update for Brazil is out Friday. The USDA did trim the crop guess for Argentina a little because of weather issues and made no adjustments to exports for South America or imports by China. Soybeans remain optimistic about new export demand from China ahead of the expected face-to-face meeting between President Trump and President Xi. China says it imported 12.56 million tons of soybeans during January and February, below year ago levels due to the slower harvest in Brazil and delays in getting beans through customs. Soybean meal futures were higher and bean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads. Bean oil picked up additional pressure from a drop in crude oil, but losses were limited by biofuels demand expectations. There’s been no material change to the crude oil supply situation as military action is ongoing in Iran and other areas of the Middle East.
Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling. The USDA mostly left U.S. and world corn numbers steady. There were no changes to the domestic balance sheet, U.S. ending stocks are still seen at 2.127 billion bushels, but the USDA did raise corn production in Brazil and Ukraine, while lowering the crop for Argentina following dry weather during some key phases of development. The USDA left exports for South America and the Black Sea region unchanged. The trade’s monitoring weather in South America, along with U.S. conditions ahead of widespread planting, with the USDA’s Prospective Plantings numbers out on the 31st, in addition to Quarterly Grain Stocks. Ahead of that, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol numbers are out this Wednesday.
The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling. The USDA left U.S. ending stocks unchanged from February, while world wheat production was up on the month. That modest global production rise followed increases for Kazakhstan and Ukraine, which canceled out a decrease for Australia. The USDA also upped exports for Argentina and Kazakhstan, while cutting projections for the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine. Global supplies continue to look very large, with the next round of supply and demand numbers out April 9th. Near-term precipitation chances for U.S. winter wheat growing areas are mixed as the crop creeps towards breaking dormancy. Parts of the region could see a late season frost/freeze event this weekend or early next week, potentially damaging the crop in areas without snow cover.
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