Market News

Soybeans up, corn down, new lows in wheat

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying. High heat during the first part of the week in some areas could have an impact on yields. Parts of the region are expected to see a return to less stressful temperatures later this week. For now, the USDA and a recent private crop tour are projecting record production. The USDA says 67% of U.S. soybeans are rated good to excellent, down 1%, with 89% at the pod setting stage and 6% dropping leaves, both ahead of the respective five-year averages. Soybean meal was up on commercial support and bullish crush margins. Soybean oil followed the leads of crude and palm oils. The recent strength in palm oil has been tied to talk Indonesia will move to a higher biodiesel blend rate, while crude oil was up Monday on rising tensions in the Middle East. U.S. soybean export inspections were higher than both last week and last year, continuing to coast into the end of the 2023/24 marketing year. The top destinations were Mexico and China. Argentina’s government says 4.38 million tons of soybeans were processed in July, a jump of 72% on the year due to improved margins and a larger crop.

Corn was lower on speculative and technical selling, pulling December to a fresh contract low. Corn is watching the heat and a chance of severe storms in some northern and western parts of the region. That’s ahead of the potential for an at least slightly cooler start to September in some areas. As of Sunday, 65% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, 2% lower, with 84% at the dough making stage, 46% dented, and 11% mature, all faster than average. That recent private crop tour did show yields slightly below USDA, but still record large, with the next projection out September 12^th. U.S. corn export inspections were down on the week, up on the year, staying ahead of the pace needed to meet estimates for the current marketing year, which runs through the end of the month. The leading destinations were Mexico and Colombia. Feed, fuel, and export demand continue to be positives for corn. Reports out of Brazil have 94.2% of the second crop harvested, with planting underway for next year’s first corn crop.

The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago down, Kansas City steady to firm, and Minneapolis mostly weak. There are spring wheat quality concerns following recent heavy rainfall in parts of the northern U.S. Plains. According to the USDA, 51% of spring wheat is harvested, compared to the normal rate of 53%, while 69% of the crop is called good to excellent, 4% less than last week. The winter wheat harvest is officially over. Crop quality and yield losses are also an issue in parts of the European Union due to excessive rainfall. That’s in addition to some damage in parts of Russia and Ukraine and the early questions about Argentina’s crop. The trade is also monitoring development weather in Australia. All three U.S. pits did hit contract lows during Monday’s session with initial pressure from lower moves in Paris milling wheat and Russia’s export prices. U.S. wheat export inspections were above a week ago and a year ago, with the 2024/25 marketing year running ahead of 2023/24. The main destinations were South Korea and Vietnam. Canada’s Labor Board ordered striking rail employees to get back to work while negotiations are ongoing.