Market News

Soybeans up, corn down on more pre-report positioning

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. Beans followed bean oil, which was supported by global demand expectations. Soybean oil was one of the few major commodities to see an improvement in the week export sales report and nearing the halfway point of 2024/25, the pace is considerably faster than 2023/24. That’s largely because of production issues for some other vegetable oils and competitive U.S. prices. The gains in bean oil and beans pulled meal modestly higher. The USDA is expected to project a year-to-year decline in U.S. soybean acreage next week and an increase in the domestic supply. The USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks report are both out Monday at Noon Eastern/11 Central. Soybean export sales were a little lower than last week at 12.4 million bushels. Mexico and China were the big weekly buyers, but there was a big cancelation by unknown destinations. New crop sales were a net reduction as routine business with unknown and Japan was more than offset by a cancelation from Mexico. ANEC sees Brazil’s March soybeans at 15 to 16.1 million tons, potentially the largest for any month on record.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Corn is watching Argentina’s harvest and second crop development weather in Brazil, while getting ready for next week’s USDA reports. Ahead of the report, most analysts expect an increase in U.S. planted area and slightly lower quarterly stocks. After that, the next major round of numbers is the USDA’s monthly supply, demand, and production update out April 10^th, the same day as CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil. Corn export sales were down on the week at 40.9 million bushels, but still steady with the four-week average. Japan and Mexico led the way, but there was a significant cancellation by unknown destinations. Shipments continue to be solid. The bigger than expected drop in weekly ethanol production can be tied to seasonal maintenance.

The wheat complex was mixed. Soft red winter growing areas should see some precipitation late this week, while the hard red winter region could stay dry into early April. The trade’s also watching rain chances in the Black Sea region and spring wheat planting conditions in the northern U.S. Plains and the Canadian Prairies. Planted area for all U.S. wheat is expected to be above a year ago with an increase for winter against a slight increase for spring, while quarterly stocks could be larger than this time last year. Weekly old crop U.S. wheat sales were a meager 3.7 million bushels, falling 65% below the four-week average. Japan and Nigeria were the week’s top purchasers and there were a handful of cancelations led by unknown destinations. New crop sales were 400,000 bushels, with routine sales to Trinidad and Tobago, Panama, and Peru. The uncertainties about tariffs by and against the U.S., some of which are still expected to go into effect April 1^st, continue to be a background factor for U.S. ag commodities and the economy in general.