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Soybeans up, corn, wheat down after USDA numbers

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying. U.S. ending stocks were unchanged at a tight 210 million bushels, while the USDA raised Brazil’s crop guess and lowered Argentina by larger than expected margins. Exports for both nations were steady, but Argentina’s imports were up. CONAB’s next official outlook for Brazil’s crop is out Thursday, along with the USDA’s weekly export sales report. Domestically, the futures spread continues to reflect tight near-term supplies and solid demand. Soybean meal and oil were up on that demand and good margins. Near-term planting weather looks good for most of the region, but some areas should see early delays. The import guess for China was reduced 1 million tons to 92 million, but that’s still above the 2021/22 total. The USDA’s first round of new crop estimates are out in next month’s supply and demand update.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Corn ending stocks were steady with minor, offsetting changes to the balance sheet, while Brazil’s crop was up and Argentina’s was down. There were no changes to exports or ethanol use. Prior to the supply and demand update, the USDA’s Foreign Ag Service projected Brazil’s combined 2022/23 corn crop at 133 million tons, up 8 million from last year on higher planted area and better expected weather, with exports of 54 million tons, 4 million more than the current marketing year. The USDA did increase the corn export outlooks for Russia and Ukraine, also boosting the production guess for Russia. U.S. planting is just getting underway in most of the Corn Belt and a little bit ahead of average with many areas expected to make good progress this week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and supply numbers are out Wednesday.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. U.S. ending stocks were up more than expected but are still much lower than average for this time of year. Global ending stocks were down, while the production outlook was slightly higher. Even with the uncertainties about an extension for the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the USDA raised exports for Russia and Ukraine, while leaving production projections steady, for now. The USDA did cut the wheat production estimate for Argentina. Stateside, the trade’s monitoring winter wheat conditions and early planting delays in parts of the northern U.S. Plains. The USDA’s attaché in Brazil sees 2022/23 wheat production at a record 11 million tons, up almost 4% from 2021/22, which should allow for increased exports.

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