Market News

Soybeans up Friday, higher on week, with help from bean meal

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying, cementing a higher weekly finish. Crush margins are solid, and there was spillover from bean meal, which was up on aggressive spread trade against bean oil. Bean oil, and beans, largely ignored crude oil Friday, which spent much of the session mixed due to the ongoing questions about the ceasefire in Iran and the full impact of the military action on the world’s energy sector. Bean meal also picked up some interest because of the sale of 100,000 tons of 2025/26 U.S. soybean meal to Italy Friday morning. Brazil’s harvest is past 80% and it continues to take up a big chunk of the global soybean market, especially with China. CONAB will release its next look at Brazil’s crops Monday, April 13^th. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 47% of Argentina’s soybean crop is in good to excellent shape, up 2% on the week, with harvest at 2%, a little slower than normal due to recent condition boosting rain. The USDA attaché for Argentina estimates 2026/27 soybean production at 49 million tons, compared to 48 million in 2025/26, with a crush of 42 million tons, compared to 43 million tons during the current marketing year. That dip in crush is expected to reduce meal production slightly, with exports projected at a still solid 30 million tons, while adjustments for soybean oil were minimal.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling, adding to what would have already been a week-to-week decline. Planting weather generally looks favorable and even if there are some delays, it’s early in the season. A few things are still up in the air, including the long-term impact of drought and how high fuel and fertilizer prices might still affect planted area, not just this year, but next year. Unknown destinations bought more than 125,000 tons of old crop U.S. corn ahead of the open. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out May 10^th. Globally, the trade’s monitoring the harvest in Argentina and second crop development weather in Brazil. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 21.6% of Argentina’s expected record corn crop has been harvested. SovEcon lowered its outlook for Ukraine’s corn crop by 1.7 million tons to 28.1 million, citing fuel and fertilizer worries.

The wheat complex was, mostly lower Friday, ending the week with steep losses. The trade continues to monitor rain chances for hard red winter growing areas in the U.S. Plains. 68% of U.S. winter wheat growing areas are in some stage of drought, and it’s impacted the hard red winter crop more than the soft red winter crop. The USDA will update the winter wheat condition rating and spring wheat planting pace in Monday’s weekly crop progress and condition report. Export demand is good despite high U.S. prices and large global supplies. SovEcon now has Ukraine’s 2026 wheat crop at 23.6 million tons, 1 million less than the last guess because of fuel and fertilizer availability. Exports are pegged at 20.8 million tons, up 500,000. Parts of the Black Sea region, including Russia and Ukraine, are expected to see warmer weather in the coming week.