Market News

Soybeans up Friday, still down on week

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying but posted a week-to-week decline. Beans continue to monitor the generally favorable development conditions in most of South America. Unknown destinations bought 198,000 tons of 2024/25 U.S. beans, the third day in a row with an announced sale for a running total of 959,200 tons. It remains to be seen if this is part of the buying spree from China ahead of the potential for a renewed trade war under the incoming second Trump administration. Biofuels policy under that new Trump administration is also a big question mark, which has taken some of the steam out of soybean oil’s sails. Soybean oil was down on those questions and product spread trade, which supported bean meal.

Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling, with the most active months ending the week nearly unchanged. Corn is watching the development weather in Argentina and Brazil, with rain in the forecast early in the coming week for some areas. Cash basis levels are solid, and feed, fuel, and export demand remain bullish. Still, some of those demand components could be changing. Argentina is becoming more competitive with the U.S. and there are some concerns in Mexico about a how the second Trump administration could impact trade, in addition to the questions about biofuels policy. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says corn exports since July 1^st are 6.5 million tons, 16% ahead of last marketing year. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out December 10^th, with CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil on the 12^th.

The wheat complex was modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling, along with the higher dollar, while still finishing higher on the week. The recent rain and snow in the Midwest and Plains should boost condition ratings in Monday’s USDA numbers. The USDA’s last scheduled weekly national crop progress and condition report of the season is out on the 25^th at 4 Eastern/3 Central. Argentina’s crop is about a third harvested and estimates for Australia are rising as that harvest moves forward. The trade is also monitoring development weather in Europe, along with the conditions and war in Russia and Ukraine. France’s AgriMer says 88% of the wheat crop is good to excellent, 5% above a year ago, with 90% planted. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says wheat exports since July 1^st are 8.6 million tons, 56% faster than the prior marketing year. India’s government lowered its wheat production guess slightly due to warmer than normal temperatures in some key growing areas.