Market News

Soybeans up on lower USDA crop rating

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying. The USDA’s national condition rating dipped over the past week, with planting and emergence both close to average. Near-term development weather forecasts generally look favorable, including hot temperatures in large parts of the region, but that’s expected to coincide with rain in many areas. The USDA’s updated production outlook is set for July 11^th. Soybean meal was up on oversold signals and the sale of 120,000 tons of new crop bean meal ahead of the open. The U.S. and world soybean meal markets have seen recent general pressure from slow export demand. Soybean oil was mixed on spread trade and profit taking, despite a sharply higher move in crude oil linked to rising tensions in the Middle East. The proposed RVO numbers remain supportive for bean oil. Harvest conditions look favorable in Argentina.

Corn was mixed, mostly modestly higher. The USDA’s corn rating was up on the week, with emergence matching the five-year average and mostly non-threating weather on top. Conditions will be hot in some areas, but most of the region is expected to see at least some rainfall. Brazil’s second crop harvest is slow, hampered by late planting and recent rain. Still, these harvest delays are a relatively minor concern because of the planting delays, which will likely limit the impact on yield, and it does appear to be a large, if not record crop. The trade’s also watching harvest weather in Argentina, which looks generally good over the next few days. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production, stocks, and export numbers are out Wednesday.

The wheat complex was higher on speculative and technical buying. Chicago and Kansas City were up with delays to the winter wheat harvest and a decline in the crop rating, while Minneapolis is monitoring rain chances in the northern U.S. Plains and Canadian Prairies. The trade’s also watching planting and development conditions in Argentina, Australia, China, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. Russia’s wheat export prices have declined following recent increases to wheat production estimates from several consultancies. The European Union’s crop monitoring agency, MARS, sees slightly larger than average spring wheat planted area in Ukraine, but says yield outlooks vary widely because of weather. France’s Ag Ministry expects soft wheat planted area to be just under the May projection.