Market News

Soybeans up on soybean oil, weather questions

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying, with the most active months up on the week. Beans were oversold and saw bounce with help from soybean and crude oils. There’s also the chance of crop stress in some areas with a warmer, drier pattern expected in parts of the region in the coming week. The USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition numbers are out Monday afternoon. Export demand has improved, with unknown destinations buying another 120,000 tons of new crop U.S. beans ahead of the open, the fifth day in a row with an announced sale. China continuing to also buy beans from Brazil makes that even a little more impressive, but there’s always a significant chance Beijing will make cancelations sometime in between now and the end of 2024/25, especially if Brazil’s currency remains low versus the dollar. Soybean meal was mostly firm, adjusting spreads, and bean oil was up on that higher move in crude oil along with overnight gains in palm oil.

Corn was mixed, mostly lower, ending the week lower in the nearby contracts. Corn consolidated, keeping an eye on development weather and waiting for the final numbers from a major private crop tour, which were out after the close. The yield numbers generally look good but are mixed when compared to the USDA’s August estimates. The crop isn’t fully made, yet, but even with those mixed yield predictions, it looks like a large crop and a big carryover. The USDA’s next round of production projections is out September 12th and could also contain another adjustment in acreage. Feed, fuel, and export demand remain big positives for corn, just not quite positive enough to pull the new crop ending stocks guess below 2 billion bushels, yet. Part of that’s also due to large old crop stocks and slow farmer selling.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, adding to the weekly losses. The spring wheat harvest is moving forward, with good yields in some key growing areas. There have been some recent concerns about yield following rainfall during the late development and early harvest stages, but condition ratings have been relatively stable and holding well above a year ago. It remains to be seen if the USDA will maintain its record spring wheat average yield guess. The winter wheat harvest is close to wrapping up. The downturn in global prices was a continued source of pressure throughout the week. Quality issues have pressured Paris milling wheat recently. Weather has had an impact in France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine, and could be an issue in Argentina. Wheat’s also waiting to see what happens with Canada’s rail strike.