Market News

Soybeans weak, corn mixed, watching weather in South America

Soybeans were modestly lower on fund and technical selling. Soybeans are watching weather in South America, including chances for more hot, dry weather in southern Argentina, potentially stressing the crop. Brazil’s expected record soybean harvest is still in the early stages at around 2% complete and with planting nearly wrapped up for the season. Safras e Mercado projects Brazil’s crop at 179.28 million tons but expects exports to dip because of increased domestic use. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out February 10^th. Export inspections were down on the week, up on the year, primarily to China and Mexico. Even with this recent return to the U.S. market by China, the 2025/26 remains considerably slower than 2024/25. Soybean meal futures were mixed, adjusting spreads, and bean oil followed beans modestly lower. The Philippines bought 190,000 tons of 2025/26 U.S. bean meal ahead of the open.

Corn was mixed, mostly firm, on bear spreading, moving out of nearby contracts and into deferred months. Corn is monitoring conditions in South America, still anticipating a record crop in Argentina, despite the dryness in some areas. Corn is also watching conditions in Brazil, with CONAB reporting planting at 91% for the first crop and just getting started for the second crop. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil’s crops is set for February 12^th. Export demand is solid and there’s ongoing talk about year-round E15. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol numbers will be out Thursday. Export inspections were lower than last week and last year, mainly to Mexico and Colombia. The pace of shipments has slowed after the more aggressive movement during the first quarter of the marketing year, but 2025/26 continues to be well ahead of 2024/25. Commodities in general continue to be wary about new tariffs on the European Union, a major buyer of U.S. ag goods.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Most forecasts have another round of bitterly cold weather for large swaths of U.S. winter wheat growing areas later this week, but parts of the region could get snow, limiting the potential for winterkill. Still, the full impact of any freeze damage would remain unknown until the crop emerges from dormancy. The trade is also watching overwintering conditions in Europe and the Black Sea region. Saudi Arabia bought 907,000 tons of wheat over the weekend, from a combination of Bulgaria, Romania, and Russia. Export inspections were above the prior week and a year ago, with Mexico and Japan topping the list. Getting closer to the third quarter of the marketing year, 2025/26 U.S. wheat inspections maintain a slight edge on 2024/25, even with the recent rise in global competition and swelling world supplies.