Market News

Soybeans, wheat cling onto gains as corn finishes mixed

Soybeans were modestly higher on fund and technical buying. Beans started lower but found support from near-term demand expectations, despite the USDA’s most recent supply and demand report being seen as neutral. Crop development weather in South American remains generally favorable, with Argentina and Brazil both likely to produce large crops in 2025. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out January 10^th, including the preliminary final 2024 U.S. numbers for beans and corn. Soybean meal finished mostly lower and bean oil was down, both seeing some late technical pressure. The USDA’s increased projection for U.S. soybean oil exports has been mostly canceled out by a larger production guess based on changes to the meal/oil yield crush ratio.

Corn was mostly firm. The supply and demand numbers were bullish, with the USDA raising ethanol and export use projections. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production last week averaged 1.073 million barrels per day, up 5,000 from Thanksgiving week and 4,000 from a year ago, with stocks of 22.648 million barrels, a decrease of 355,000 on the week, but an increase of 548,000 on the year. Ethanol exports averaged 123,000 barrels a day, down 3,000 from the prior week and 1,000 from a year ago. Corn is monitoring South America, with CONAB’s updated numbers for Brazil out Thursday. Conditions are good, but the big test will be Brazil’s second crop, planted after soybeans and the source of most of their exports. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says the 2024 corn harvest is nearly complete at 24.6 million tons, down 8.5% from 2023.

Chicago and Kansas City wheat were higher on fund and technical buying. USDA did raise the U.S. export guess at the halfway point of the 2024/25 marketing year, but while Russia’s exports were lowered, the cut was less than expected. Still, the USDA could always make more cuts and likely will after Moscow’s cap officially goes into effect in February. The USDA’s weekly U.S. export sales numbers are out Thursday morning. The trade continues to watch harvest activity in Australia and Argentina, both of which are expected to be U.S. competition for some of Russia’s lost market share, along with Canada. The first 66,000 tons of Egypt’s 430,000-ton purchase from Russia in September is reportedly being shipped. Delivery was originally scheduled for October, with no public reason cited for the delay. The trade’s also watching development conditions in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine.