Market News

Soybeans, wheat end session mostly higher

Soybeans were mixed, mostly higher, adjusting spreads. Development conditions in South America continue to look favorable with more rain on the way for some areas. It looks like South America is on track for a very large crop this year, but there are months to go until harvest. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out December 10^th, while CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil is set for the 12^th. Soybean oil was up on global demand expectations, while bean meal was down on profit taking. China’s export tax rebate for used cooking oil ends December 1^st, which is expected to impact U.S. imports for biodiesel usage. That might be the first concrete move in a renewed trade war between the U.S. and China under a second Trump administration.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Corn’s also monitoring the generally favorable crop conditions in most of Argentina and Brazil. President-elect Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, and Canada, is a background concern. The potential for a trade war with several of the largest U.S. trading partners or slowdown in trade as the USMCA is reworked is a background concern. It’s likely at least part of the reason Mexico has recently stepped-up imports of U.S. corn. Some goods from Canada could see an additional 10% tariff. Losses were limited by solid demand for feed, fuel, and export use. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production, supply, and stocks numbers are out Wednesday, while weekly export sales are pushed back to Friday.

The wheat complex was mostly higher, except for December Minneapolis. The USDA’s final U.S. winter wheat rating ahead of dormancy is solid at 55% good to excellent. There are still a few acres to plant, at least statistically, but activity is nearly complete, and emergence has pulled up to the five-year average thanks to improved precipitation in parts of the Plains and Midwest. There’s talk of lower exports from Russia, which could help the U.S., but there’s competition from Argentina and Australia as those harvests advance. The USDA and commodity markets are closed Thursday for Thanksgiving and markets will close early Friday.