Market News

Soybeans, wheat give back some gains ahead of Presidents Day weekend

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling but still saw a week-to-week gain. Brazil’s harvest is ongoing and while Argentina’s crop rating declined, there was more rain in the forecast. While Brazil is expected to produce a record crop, there are concerns about quality due to excessive rain during harvest in some areas. The trade’s waiting for signs of improved demand from China. It’s a big question right now if Beijing will start buying significant amounts of soybeans in the near future for a couple of reasons, including Brazil’s price advantage and the 10% tariff on beans. Additionally, China’s Lunar New Year celebrations get underway in the coming week. President Trump and President Xi are expected to next meet face-to-face in April. Soybean meal futures were higher and soybean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was mixed, while closing modestly higher for the week. Argentina’s corn rating dipped again but is above a year ago with many still expecting a record crop, while first crop harvesting and second crop planting in Brazil are both about 20% complete. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out March 10^th. Corn is looking at solid overall demand against a very large domestic supply. Chatter about China buying U.S. corn due to domestic crop quality issues has eased, with Beijing instead purchasing sorghum, both from the U.S. and Australia. The trade deal with Taiwan is expected to lead to more demand for several U.S. ag products.

The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling, finishing the week firm to higher. There was rain in the forecast for some of the dry winter wheat growing areas in the Plains and Midwest. While that won’t erase the recent expansion in drought, it would likely boost condition ratings in some key growing areas. The trade’s watching for early emergence and monitoring long-term outlooks for the potential return to more seasonal temperatures. Wheat is also monitoring overwintering conditions in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. Consulting firm IKAR has Russia’s 2026 wheat crop at 91 million tons, 3 million more than the previous guess, with export potential of 47.5 million tons. France’s AgriMer says 91% of that nation’s soft wheat crop is in good to excellent shape, compared to 73% this time last year. India’s government says it will allow exports of 2.5 million tons of wheat, along with 500,000 tons of wheat products. Export demand continues to hold up well, even with relatively high prices for most types of U.S. wheat. Commodity markets are closed Monday, in observance of Presidents Day.