Market News

Soybeans, wheat mixed, corn weak ahead of several key USDA reports

Soybeans were mixed Friday, while still ending the week with a gain. Beans were watching weather in South America and getting ready for the upcoming numbers from USDA and CONAB. The USDA’s reports, including 2025 preliminary U.S. production totals, are out on the 12^th, while CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil is set for the 15^th. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 88.3% of Argentina’s soybean crop is planted, with 65% in good to excellent condition, 3% below a week ago. Unknown destinations bought 198,000 tons of U.S. beans ahead of the open. It remains to be seen if that will turn out to be China when its time for delivery. China’s Sinograin says it will offer 1.1 million tons of 2022 through 2025 beans from state reserves for auction on Tuesday, January 13^th. Soybean meal futures were mostly firm, adjusting spreads, and bean oil was supported by the bounce in crude oil.

Corn was fractionally lower on profit taking and technical selling but did see a modestly higher week-to-week finish. South American development conditions generally look favorable and while parts of Argentina need rain, the trade is still expecting a record crop, for now. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 89.1% of Argentina’s corn crop is planted, with about a third of the crop tasseling and 75% rated good to excellent, 8% less than the prior week. The trade will be watching any potential adjustments to U.S. yield by the USDA very closely on Monday. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers, and quarterly grain stocks report are also out Monday at Noon Eastern/11 Central. While U.S. corn export sales have slowed down, commitments are still well ahead of last marketing year’s pace.

The wheat complex was mixed, also ending the week mixed. The USDA is expected to report a roughly million-acre year-to-year decline in U.S. winter wheat planted area Monday. Chicago and Kansas City saw week-to-week gains on that anticipated cut in addition to expanding drought conditions in parts of the Plains. The most active months in Minneapolis dipped modestly on rising world supplies and the relatively high U.S. prices. Freeze damage is an additional concern for some U.S. winter wheat growing areas after the recent warm weather in parts of the U.S. Plains and Midwest. Wheat’s also watching overwintering conditions in Europe and the Black Sea region, along with negotiations regarding Russia’s war on Ukraine. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 98.5% of Argentina’s wheat crop is harvested, with the guess holding at 27.8 million tons.