Market News

Soybeans, wheat see dollar pressure

Soybeans were modestly lower on fund and technical selling, along with the higher trade in the dollar during the session. Beans continue to monitor harvest activity and yield numbers in Argentina and Brazil. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production report and CONAB’s new projections for Brazil are both out April 10^th. For the 2025/26 marketing year, the USDA sees Brazil’s crop at 173 million tons, compared to 169.5 million during the current 2024/25 marketing year on expectations for an increase in planted area. Exports for Brazil next marketing year are pegged at a record 112 million tons, compared to 108.3 million this marketing year, with domestic crush at 57 million tons. U.S. and Chinese trade representatives are expected to meet this week to talk tariffs and shipping fees. The overall tariff outlook, by and against the U.S., is an ongoing question mark. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads. U.S. export inspections were up on the week and the year, with China and Japan leading the pack.

Corn was mixed, mostly firm following a lower start to the session. Corn is watching harvest activity in Argentina and second crop development conditions in Brazil. There are some concerns about irregular rainfall in parts of Brazil, but for now, many private firms are in a holding pattern until there’s further development progress. AgRural left its guess for that critical second crop at 87.9 million tons, less than the most recent estimate from CONAB. Grains and oilseeds in general are waiting for the USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks numbers, both out Monday, March 31^st at Noon Eastern/11 Central. U.S. export inspections were below the prior week, but above a year with Mexico and Japan topping the list of recipients. The USDA’s attaché for Mexico estimates 2025/26 corn production at 24.5 million tons, compared to the 2024/25 total of 23.7 million tons on expectations for better weather. Imports for next marketing year are seen at 24.8 million tons, compared to 25.5 million this marketing year because of that rise in domestic production.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Wheat saw pressure from the rain in the forecast in parts of the Black Sea region and a higher move in the dollar.  That rain in Russia and Ukraine won’t fully undo months of very dry weather, but it could stabilize conditions for two key exporters. The potential for a ceasefire in Russia’s war on Ukraine is a question mark and it is uncertain how much an agreement would impact export business out of the region, either positively or negatively. Spring wheat planting is underway in parts of the Black Sea region. Near-term forecasts for the southwestern U.S. Plains remain warm and dry, likely limiting U.S. hard red winter yield potential. The trade’s also waiting for spring wheat planting to start in the Northern U.S. Plains and Canada. The USDA’s weekly national crop progress and condition reports resume Monday, April 7^th at 4 Eastern/3 Central. U.S. export inspections were lower than the week before, but higher than this time last year, primarily to the Philippines and Mexico. The USDA’s attaché in Mexico projects 2025/26 wheat production at 1.6 million tons, considerably less than the 2024/25 total of 2.64 million, which is expected to raise imports a half million tons to 6.5 million and tighten domestic stocks.