Market News

Soybeans, wheat see modestly higher finishes

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying, buying back part of Wednesday’s decline. Beans are watching weather in South America, with generally favorable conditions expected over the next week. CONAB’s new production guess for Brazil is below the USDA’s last estimate. CONAB has the crop at 166.014 million tons, fractionally less than in January, 12.4% more than last year, and less than the USDA’s current forecast of 169 million tons. Brazil’s new crop exports are expected to top 105 million tons. The discount of Brazilian beans to U.S. supplies showed up in this week’s export sales numbers, with sales considerably smaller than average at 6.8 million bushels. China and Egypt led the way, but there was a big cancelation by unknown destinations. A handful of new crop U.S. beans were sold to Japan. The Rosario Grain Exchange projects Argentina’s soybean crop at 47.5 million tons, also below the USDA’s most recent estimate. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was mixed on bull spreading. Corn was monitoring conditions in South America and waiting for more details on the scope of reciprocal tariffs announced by the White House. Those tariffs will likely include key trading partners and are expected to be put into place in early April, probably including measures against Brazil because of their tariff on U.S. ethanol. CONAB raised its combined corn estimate for Brazil, up 2.1% on the month and 5.5% on the year at 122.017 million tons, but it’s less than the current USDA projection of 126 million tons. CONAB has the first crop at 23.582 million tons, 2.7% above a year ago, the second crop at 96.048 million tons, 6.4% higher, and the third crop at 2.387 million tons, down 3.8%. CONAB sees new crop exports by Brazil at 34 million tons. U.S. corn sales last week were 64.9 million bushels, larger than average, primarily to Japan and South Korea. Sales of 13.8 million bushels for 2025/26 delivery were mainly to Mexico. The Rosario Grain Exchange pegs Argentina’s corn crop at 46 million tons, a cut of 2 million on the month.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying, along with the weakness in the dollar during the session. Parts of the Plains and Midwest did get snow over the past couple of days, but areas without cover could see winterkill as bitterly cold temperatures set in. Still, it will be hard to quantify any damage until the crop emerges from dormancy. The trade’s also observing development conditions in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. U.S. export sales were above average at 20.9 million bushels, led by Mexico and South Korea. Approaching the final quarter of 2024/25, sales and shipments remain ahead of 2023/24. Routine new crop sales of 1.4 million bushels were mostly to Japan and Mexico. Russia’s grain export cap goes into effect Saturday with questions about how much of that will be picked up by the U.S. Wheat’s also waiting to see what happens with talks aimed at ending Russia’s war on Ukraine. CONAB has Brazil’s next wheat crop at 9.118 million tons, which would be 15.6 above the year before.