Market News

Soybeans, winter wheat start lower, finish higher

Soybeans were modestly higher on commercial and technical buying. 48% of the U.S. crop is planted and 17% has emerged, both faster than average. Planting weather for much of the week looks favorable, but some areas will see delays later this week. Contracts started the session lower, seeing some early profit taking, prior to rallying on optimism about the temporary tariff reductions with China and the USDA’s nominally bullish supply and demand numbers. Soybeans are also watching Argentina’s harvest and waiting to see what CONAB reports for Brazil’s 2024/25 total on Thursday, the 15^th. There was also spillover support from bean oil on the potential for increased biofuel demand. Soybean meal was pressured by product spread trade and demand concerns.

Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling, but did finish above the session’s lows. 62% of corn is planted and 28% has emerged, ahead of the respective normal paces. Most of the leading corn production states are ahead of average, but key parts of the Corn Belt do reflect the heavy rainfall and flooding of past weeks. Parts of the Corn Belt are expected to see favorable planting weather ahead of more rain later this week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production, stocks, and export numbers are out Wednesday. Brazil is reportedly working towards a trade agreement with China on DDGS trade. Corn is also monitoring the harvest in Argentina and second crop development conditions in Brazil. The USDA’s next round of global production projections is out June 12^th.

The wheat complex was mixed. The winter wheat rating improved over the past week and spring wheat planting and emergence are both ahead of average.  Chicago and Kansas City were up on the lower dollar and oversold signals, while Minneapolis was down on that spring wheat planting progress. Parts of the northern U.S. Plains have seen hot, dry weather, speeding up the planting process, but there is some rain in the near-term outlook, along with cooler temperatures. France’s Ag Ministry reduced its soft wheat planted area estimate, but the total is still up on the year. The trade’s also monitoring planting and development in the rest of Europe, along with Australia, Canada, China, Russia, and Ukraine.