Market News

Up day for soybeans, corn, wheat

Soybeans were modestly higher on fund and technical buying. Near-term harvest conditions generally look favorable for much of the region, but parts of the southeast will see ongoing delays as they assess crop damage following Helene. The widespread U.S. port strike will have at least some impact on shipping out of the East Coast. Unknown destinations picked up 120,000 tons of 2024/25 U.S. soybeans Tuesday morning, bringing the total for announced sales this week to 236,000 tons. Tuesday’s sale could be a delayed report, fulfilling some of last week’s trade rumors about demand from China, even with that nation officially on the Golden Week holiday. Soybean meal was mixed, nearby contracts were up, deferred months were down, on spread trade tied to demand expectations. Soybean oil finished lower, unable to hold onto its rally despite the strength in crude oil. Crude oil was up on concerns about rising tensions in the Middle East. The USDA says 168 million bushels of soybeans were crushed during August, a decline of 25 million from July and 1 million from August 2023. That also pulled meal and oil production down. Soybean meal stocks were higher, while soybean oil stocks tightened.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying, continuing its run to multi-month highs. Corn is monitoring U.S. harvest activity and the domestic port strikes. Damage or crop loss in probable in parts of the southeastern Corn Belt following storm damage and heavy rainfall from Helene. Those strikes running from Maine to Texas are expected to cause some delays for container shipping. Unknown destinations bought 195,000 tons of new crop U.S. corn Tuesday morning. Corn is also monitoring planting conditions in Argentina and Brazil. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production estimates is out October 11^th, a week from this Friday, with CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil set for the 15^th. The USDA says 472.697 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol production in August, down 2% on the month, but up 7% on the year, with DDGS production of 1,997,750 tons, slightly less than the previous month, but 10% more than last year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers are out Wednesday.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying. The trade is keeping an eye on very dry conditions in parts of the U.S. Plains hard red winter region and the Black Sea region, which could impact planted area. In contrast, parts of the U.S. soft red winter region are excessively wet following Helene, but that should be beneficial long-term. Even then, the test for wheat isn’t the planting weather or over-wintering conditions, it’s the weather after post-dormancy emergence. Stateside, winter wheat planting and emergence are just ahead of average. December Chicago and Kansas City both traded above, but could not close above, $6. The European Union’s MARS unit estimates Russia’s 2024 wheat crop at 82.9 million tons due to weather issues. UkrAgroConsult says Ukraine’s export pace is ahead of last marketing year.