Market News

USDA expected to lower corn acreage estimate

Ahead of USDA’s planted area update, two major analytical firms expect smaller corn acreage and bigger soybean acreage.

Allendale Inc. has corn acreage down 211,000 acres from the March estimate at 84.775 million acres as delayed planting in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and North Dakota offsets increased acreage in Nebraska and Iowa. However, Allendale’s estimate would still be the third most corn planted in 50 years. Soybean acreage is expected to be up 2.46 million acres from March at a record 78.484 million acres as farmers switch from corn and spring wheat to soybeans. Non-durum spring wheat acreage is pegged at 12.973 million acres and durum is seen at 2.430 million acres, out of a total of 58.336 million, on poor planting conditions in spring and durum growing areas. If realized, this would be the smallest planted area total in three years.

Informa Economics has corn at 83.111 million acres, down around 2 million from USDA’s March estimate following planting delays in some critical growing areas. A lot of that lost corn acreage is expected to go to soybeans with Informa estimating planted area at a record 78.869 million acres. Spring wheat planting, excluding durum, is expected to be 13.404 million acres, compared to 14.135 million a year ago.

In March’s prospective planting report, USDA had corn at 85.0 million acres and soybeans at 76.0 million.

USDA will also be updating wheat planting and quarterly stocks estimates. Allendale has corn stocks at 4.321 billion bushels, compared to 6.958 billion last quarter and 4.028 billion last year. Soybeans are pegged at 580 million bushels, compared to 1.302 billion in March and 676 million in June 2008. Wheat stocks are seen at 662 million bushels, compared to 1.037 billion in the previous report and 306 million a year ago.

The numbers are out Tuesday, June 30 at 7:30 AM Central.