Market News

Weather concerns pull corn, soybeans higher

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying, rallying after updated midday weather forecasts. The trade continues to watch weather for chances of crop stress during key development phases. There’s been more talk about China buying U.S. beans, trade rumors are generally around 300,000 tons, but no USDA confirmation as of yet this week. China hasn’t officially purchased new crop U.S. soybeans since late June, even with more competitive pricing. The USDA office in Argentina now has 2025/26 soybean production at 50 million tons, matching the official guess with harvest nearly wrapped up, with crush at 43.5 million tons, a half million higher than the last projection. 2026/27 production for Argentina is now seen at 49 million tons, with a crush of 42 million tons. For Brazil, the attaché has 2026/27 production at 184 million tons, compared to the last official estimate of 186 million tons and the 2025/26 total of 180 million. Exports for 2026/27 are pegged at 117.5 million tons, compared to 115 million for 2025/26. CONAB’s next look at Brazil’s crops is set for July 14^th. Soybean meal and oil futures moved higher on the implications of a smaller soybean crop. Meal had additional support from the pre-open sale of 105,000 tons of 2025/26 to Colombia, while bean oil had some help from a bounce in crude oil.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying. Corn is monitoring development weather, with some medium-term forecasts projecting a heat dome in parts of the Corn Belt. By midday Tuesday, many of those forecasts had extended the expected length of the heat dome duration, but that will likely continue to change until the pattern actually dissipates. No matter what, this is a critical development period for the bulk of the 2026 U.S. crop. High temperatures are also expected to have an impact on France’s corn crop. Overall demand continues to be solid and there’s talk about China buying U.S. corn as well. The trade is also monitoring harvest activity in Argentina and Brazil. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol numbers are out Wednesday.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying, following corn and soybeans late in the session. The U.S. winter wheat harvest is almost 60% complete, with results in some key hard red winter growing areas showing significant drought impact. Parts of the HRW region are starting to turn drier again ahead of planting. The USDA’s spring wheat rating is below average for this time of year. Globally, the biggest area of concern seems to be the ongoing hot, dry pattern in portions of Western Europe, especially France. The trade is also monitoring conditions in Argentina, Australia, Canada, Russia, and Ukraine. The USDA will updated U.S. and international supply, demand, and production numbers Friday.