Market News

Wheat clings onto modest gains

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling, with some months falling below what had been support. Contracts gave back some recent gains, with spillover pressure from soybean products. Part of the pressure in bean meal and oil stemmed from the fundamental implications of big crops out of Argentina and Brazil. Parts of South America have dried out a little ahead of more rain next week, which should keep conditions generally favorable. The trade continues to take a wait and see attitude towards any potential trade relationship shifts with China under the second Trump administration. Brazil is expected to announce trade deals with China later this week.

Corn was modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling. Corn is also watching the mostly favorable planting and development weather in Argentina and Brazil. Stateside, the harvest is statistically wrapped up for the season. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand numbers December 10^th won’t have any adjustments, that will wait for the preliminary final numbers in January. Feed, fuel, and export demand continue to be positive factors. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production, stocks, and export numbers are out Wednesday.

The wheat complex was modestly higher on fund and technical buying, despite the periodic firm trade in the dollar during the session. Contracts saw another round of support from the Black Sea region tensions. The impact on wheat export business has been watched closely during Russia’s war on Ukraine. Most of the issues have been experienced by Ukraine, slower shipping out of the Black Sea, being forced to use overland routes, reduced production, reputed grain theft by Russia, while Russia continues to see strong demand because of low prices. The trade’s also monitoring planting and development weather in Europe, Ukraine, and Russia, along with harvest activity in Argentina and Australia. Cereals Canada estimates 2024 wheat production at 34.3 million tons, which would be up 4% from 2023. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry sees a larger wheat crop in 2025 on expectations for an increase in planted area. The USDA’s winter wheat good to excellent rating was up on the week and the poor to very poor category was down, with more rain the forecast in some areas.