Market News

Wheat ends session solidly higher

Soybeans higher on short covering and technical buying. There’s been more rain in dry parts of Argentina, likely stabilizing crop conditions, but some top end yield potential may have already been lost in some areas. The trade is also monitoring soybean harvest activity in Brazil, with mixed progress expected over the next few days. Export sales were down on the week at 14.2 million bushels with a substantial cancelation by unknown destinations. China did top the list, despite being officially out for Lunar New Year celebrations, followed by the Netherlands. China continuing to buy beans during tariff tensions is notable, but Beijing has not shown most of the interest expected after suspending some Brazilian suppliers for phytosanitary concerns. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying. Corn’s monitoring development conditions in Argentina and second crop corn planting in Brazil. Some of Argentina’s later planted corn would benefit from a wetter pattern and second crop corn planting in Brazil is dependent on the speed of the soybean harvest. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are out on the 11^th, with CONAB’s new outlook for Brazil slated for the 13^th. Mexico has pulled restrictions on GMO corn for human use. Weekly export sales were solid at 58.2 million bushels, led by Mexico and Japan, but with a cancelation by unknown destinations. A modest amount of 2025/26 sales were mainly to Japan and Mexico. The Ukrainian Agrarian Council says it will export 2.15 million tons of corn in February, following up on the 2.5 million tons in January.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying after a fairly quiet session with not a lot of fundamental news. The trade continues to assess potential winterkill in parts of the Midwest and Plains, along with development weather in Europe, India, Russia, and Ukraine. U.S. winter wheat conditions remain broadly mixed. Export demand remains relatively slow, but last week’s sales were above average at 16.1 million bushels, primarily to Mexico and unknown destinations. There was also a handful of 2025/26 business, also mostly with Mexico and unknown destinations. Russia’s official grain export cap goes into effect next week. It remains to be seen how much of that will be filled by the U.S., but at least some uptick in business is probable. Part of that vacuum will also likely be filled by Argentina and Australia.