Market News

Wheat finishes mostly firm as soybeans, corn see more losses

Soybeans were modestly lower on speculative and technical selling, adding to what would have already been a bearish week. Contracts were unable to follow through on an early bounce, continuing to monitor development weather. Conditions are favorable in most of the Midwest, with a chance for rain in some areas in the coming week ahead of an expected turn to slightly warmer weather. Ahead of Friday’s open, unknown destinations bought 212,000 tons of U.S. soybeans, with 50,000 for 2023/24 and 162,000 for 2024/25, and China picked up 132,000 tons, all for 2024/25, while Colombia purchased 100,000 tons of U.S. bean meal, with 12,000 for this marketing year and 88,000 for next marketing year. Those soybean sales do fill some of the recent trade rumors, which have also included China continuing to buy beans from Brazil. The 2024/25 marketing year kicks off September 1^st for soybeans and October 1^st for soybean products. That sale wasn’t enough to keep soybean meal from succumbing to the bearishness of a big U.S. crop, while soybean oil was up on product spread adjustments.

Corn was modestly lower on speculative and technical selling, ensuring a lower week-to-week close.  Late development weather continues to look favorable in much of the region, but some areas have seen a reduction in soil moisture. Still, most of the crop is out of the pollination phase and parts of the region are expected to see improved chances of precipitation by midweek next week. The trade continued to get ready for Monday’s USDA supply, demand, and production numbers. Any potential yield and acreage adjustments will be watched very closely. The trade seems to have locked in a big crop and the USDA is projecting ponderous new crop ending stocks, but that’s at least somewhat canceled out by the solid feed, fuel, and export demand. The USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition report, also out Monday, is expected to show conditions holding above year ago levels. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 96.3% of Argentina’s corn crop has been harvested.

The wheat complex was mostly modestly higher, also finishing the week mixed. The big source of support is global crop weather issues impacting production. That includes declines from initial projections for France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine. SovEcon estimates Russia’s wheat crop at 82.9 million tons, compared to the last guess of 84.7 million, while IKAR has the crop at 83.8 million tons, compared to the prior projection of 84.4 million tons. It’s a little too early to tell how cold, dry weather will affect Argentina and production in Australia is expected to be up on the year, but not enough to fully offset losses from other key export competitors. Those global losses have helped boost export demand for U.S. wheat with new crop sales ahead of last marketing year. Wheat is also watching spring wheat development weather in the northern U.S. plains and Canada along with late U.S. winter wheat harvest activity. The deadline for Egypt’s record large 3.8-million-ton wheat import tender is Monday. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says producers have harvested 20.94 million tons of wheat, representing 97% of planted area.