Market News

Wheat futures supported by weather concerns

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying, along with a higher move in crude oil. Beans are waiting for more details on the delayed trade meeting between the U.S. and China, originally set for the end of the month. The timeline remains unclear, but it looks like the face-to-face meeting between President Trump and President Xi will happen. While there’s been a lot of talk about China buying more 2025/26 U.S. soybeans, recent USDA export sales reports have shown only routine sales, with the next update out Thursday. China and Brazil are expected to talk soon about phytosanitary issues. Brazil’s harvest is over 60% complete and their beans have a substantial discount to the U.S. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil’s crops is set for April 13^th. The trade has an eye on weather ahead of widespread planting as well. Allendale Inc.’s annual acreage survey has soybean planted area at 85.659 million tons, above the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum and up 4.444 million from 2025. Soybean meal futures were sharply higher and soybean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads. Ahead of the open, unknown destinations bought 120,000 tons of 2026/27 bean meal. ANEC estimates March soybean exports by Brazil at 16.32 million tons, compared to last week’s guess of 16.47 million.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying. Demand is generally solid and there was spillover from the gains in crude oil. That strength in crude continues to be tied to supply concerns caused by the military action in Iran and the Middle East. Higher input costs could influence the domestic acreage mixed, with the USDA’s planted area projections out on the 31^st, along with quarterly grain stocks. The annual Allendale Inc. acreage survey puts 2026 U.S. corn planted area at 93.678 million acres, just below the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum and 5.110 million below last year. Corn is monitoring the harvest in Argentina, along with the first crop harvest and second crop planting in Brazil. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production was a six-week low at 1.093 million barrels, down 33,000 on the week and 12,000 on the year, while stocks were the largest since April 2025 at 26.407 million barrels, rising 827,000 from the previous week but falling 168,000 from a year ago. Ethanol exports averaged 174,000 barrels per day, 14,000 lower than the week before, but 63,000 higher than last year.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying. There are concerns about winterkill in parts of the Midwest and Plains after the recent bitterly cold temperatures in some areas, with drought, also expected to have an impact on this year’s U.S. winter wheat crop, especially hard red winter. A big portion of the U.S. Plains are in some form of drought, with record high temperatures expected in parts of the region later this week. The trade is also looking at conditions ahead of full emergence in Europe and the Black Sea region, along with trade impacts from Russia’s war on Ukraine and the military action in the Middle East. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out April 9^th. While Chicago and Kansas City monitor emergence weather, Minneapolis is looking at spring planting conditions. Allendale Inc.’s annual acreage survey sees all wheat planted area in 2026 at 44.877 million acres, just under the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum and 451,000 below a year ago, including declines for all types. Allendale has winter wheat planted rea at 33.092 million acres and non-durum spring wheat at 9.678 million acres, falling 61,000 and 312,000 acres from 2025, respectively. Coceral projects 2026 European Union soft wheat production at 142.6 million tons, compared to 148.7 million in 2025. SovEcon expects Russia’s wheat exports for March to top 3 million tons, rebounding after the slow start to the year.