Market News

Wheat gives back part of previous session’s big gains

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying. Soybeans are waiting to see what comes out of this week’s face-to-face, high level trade talks with China. It remains to be seen how much of a topic of discussion soybeans will be in this round of negotiations. The U.S. delegation is not ag heavy and China is able to source a significant amount of soybeans from Brazil at cheaper prices. Several other commodities seem to be more likely purchase targets. The USDA’s most recent supply and demand report did have a rosier new crop demand picture, with the next update out June 11^th. Brazil’s ANEC sees May soybean exports at 16 million tons, compared to the previous week’s projection of 14.53 million tons. Crush margins remain solid and U.S. planting is likely past the halfway point thanks to mostly favorable weather. Some areas will see rain delays later this week, but that’s generally expected to be long-term beneficial. Soybean meal futures were sharply higher and soybean oil was lower on the aggressive unwinding of product spreads. Bean oil had additional pressure from losses in crude oil.

Corn was mostly modestly higher. Corn is watching U.S. planting weather, expecting generally good progress in much of the region this week. While parts of the U.S. will see near-term rain delays, that soil moisture recharge is welcome. Hot, dry weather in some continues to have an impact on Brazil’s second crop ahead of the CONAB update Thursday, while harvest conditions in Argentina are mostly favorable. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production averaged 1.082 million barrels per day, rising 65,000 on the week and 89,000 on the year, with stocks of 24.87 million barrels, the lowest since last October, falling 1.15 million from the week before and 575,000 from a year ago, while exports averaged 162,000 barrels per day, up 23,000 from the prior week and 48,000 from last year. Ukraine’s Ministry of the Economy estimates 2026 corn production at around 31.6 million tons, with the Ukrainian Grains Association projecting 2026/27 exports at 26 million tons.

The wheat complex was modstly lower on profit taking and technical selling. U.S. winter wheat production will be a multi-decade low, but that’s blunted by the large global supply.  A major crop tour is largely confirming the expectation for lower-than-average hard red winter yields in a key state. There’s still room for the USDA’s HRW projection to fall further. Soft red winter is in relatively good condition and near-term forecasts have mostly favorable spring wheat planting weather in the Northern Plains. Wheat is also monitoring development in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, along with planting conditions in Argentina, Australia, and Canada. IKAR is estimating a 1.8% decrease in Russia’s wheat planted area this year, partially due to spring wheat planting delays. Ukraine’s Ministry of the Economy sees that nation’s 2026 wheat crop at 22.4 million tons. The Ukrainian Grains Association currently sees 2026/27 wheat exports at 16 million tons. The USDA’s weekly U.S. sales numbers are out Thursday.