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Wheat higher, soybeans, corn lower ahead of USDA numbers

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. Beans followed the lead of soybean meal, while watching U.S. planting and development conditions. Planting is close to wrapping up in some areas, emergence is ahead of average, and the first national condition rating of the season was well above a year ago. Beans are also looking for any signs of potential acreage switching from corn. China bought 104,000 tons of 2023/24 U.S. beans. That’s China’s second reported purchase of old crop U.S. beans this month after an extended absence, likely partially due to the recent rise in Brazil’s basis. However, China has yet to purchase any 2024/25 U.S. beans. Soybean meal was lower on fund pressure, while soybean oil was mixed on bull spreading. ANEC says Brazil exported 13.451 million tons of soybeans in May, mostly to China. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil is out Thursday, June 13th. May soybean exports for Paraguay were 1.13 million tons, an increase of 34% from April.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. U.S. planting and emergence are ahead of average and while the condition rating was down on the week, it’s still at a high level. There’s some thought the rating will see further declines in the coming weeks, with a hotter, drier pattern expected to spread across large parts of the Corn Belt this month. Meanwhile, other areas further north could remain relatively cool and wet. The big question for corn is how many acres will be planted this year following the widespread delays earlier in the season. The trade was also getting ready for Wednesday’s supply and demand report, including updated numbers for Argentina and Brazil, in addition to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks update.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying. Wheat saw an oversold bounce after the recent decline. The spring wheat crop is nearly planted, while the winter wheat harvest is ahead of average. Both crops remain in much better condition than this time last year. The USDA will be updating its 2024 U.S. winter wheat production estimate Wednesday, with most analysts expect an increase. Any adjustments to the global numbers, including potential changes for Russia, will also be watched closely. Egypt bought 400,000 tons of wheat, 180,000 from Romania, 120,000 tons from Ukraine, and 100,000 from Bulgaria. Russia and the U.S. were not competitive in this tender due to relatively high prices. That rise in Russia is due to that expected crop loss caused by weather issues. There is some rain in the forecast for parts of the Black Sea region, but temperatures are expected to stay warmer than normal. Coceral sees the combined soft wheat crop for the European Union and United Kingdom at 134.5 million tons, up 400,000 from their last guess.

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