Market News

Wheat manages mixed finish after recent losses

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling, unable to follow through on periodic mixed to higher business. Beans are waiting for Friday’s quarterly grain stocks and planted acreage numbers. There was some talk during the session of new demand from China, but no confirmation. Most forecasts have improved rain in some of the drier parts of the Midwest into early July. That should ease some of the recent stress with uncertainties about longer-term outlooks. Brazil’s ANEC projects June soybean exports at 14.5 million tons, compared to the prior guess of 14.88 million tons. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil is set for July 11^th, with the USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates out the following day. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads. Statistics Canada’s planted area numbers are out Thursday, with canola pegged at 21.5 million acres, up 0.1% from March, and soybeans at 5.8 million acres, 0.2% higher.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. Corn is getting ready for those USDA numbers and watching the development weather. The 2024 acreage total is a big question for corn because of planting delays and expected replanting in some areas due to flooding. Regardless of what the USDA reports Friday, those numbers will change again once prevent plant is factored in. There are also weather impact concerns in Ukraine and Mexico. Argentina’s government says it has sequenced the leafhopper genome to avoid a repeat of this year’s damage. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production last week averaged 1.043 million barrels a day, below expectations, down 14,000 on the week and 9,000 on the year, while stocks were reported at 23.243 million barrels, 194,000 less than the week before, but 444,000 more than a year ago. Next week’s numbers are expected to show some of the impact on movement from the recent flooding in the northwestern Corn Belt. ANEC projects Brazil’s June corn exports at 1.06 million tons, up from the 1.02 million last week. The USDA’s weekly U.S. sales numbers are out Thursday.

The wheat complex was mixed. Wheat is heavily oversold, but any sustained upside will probably be limited by slow demand for U.S. wheat. There is some talk Brazil could be interested in buying U.S. hard red winter wheat. Egypt purchased 470,000 tons of wheat for August delivery Wednesday, but the U.S. once again was not competitive due to the relatively high price. Cairo picked up 180,000 tons each from Romania and Russia, along with 60,000 tons from Ukraine and 50,000 tons from Bulgaria. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says 2023/24 grain exports, including wheat, are running just ahead of the 2022/23 pace. SovEcon expects Ukraine’s total grain exports to fall in 2024/25 due to smaller crops and the ongoing shipping logistics issues due to war. The U.S. winter wheat harvest is ongoing and should reach the halfway mark very soon, while weather in the Northern U.S. Plains is impacting spring wheat conditions. Statistics Canada is expected to put planted area for all types of wheat at 27.2 million acres, an increase of .01% from the March estimate. The trade is also watching harvest activity and yield results from Russia.