Market News

Wheat mixed Friday, closing out week with gains on weather, fertilizer concerns

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying, while still closing modestly lower on the week. Beans were watching U.S. planting, expecting good progress, and waiting for any news on U.S./China trade talks. The timing and even the actual occurrence of those negotiations is at least partially tied to what happens with the military actions in Iran and the Middle East. Argentina’s harvest is behind average due to recent rainfall, but some areas could see a drier pattern. Brazil’s harvest is in the final stages. Soybean meal futures were mixed on bull spreading and soybean oil was up on domestic demand expectations, shrugging off a decline in crude oil. The USDA’s Foreign Ag Service office in Canada projects 2026/27 canola production at 20.11 million tons, compared to 21.809 million in 2025/26, with an increase in planted area expected to be offset by yields falling closer to average. Domestic crush is expected to rise, and while China has lowered its tariff on canola seed imports, canola oil imports from Canada continue to be levied at 100%.

Corn was mixed, ending the week with modest gains. Planting delays are in the forecast for parts of the Midwest and Plains, but the soil moisture recharge should be long-term beneficial. Yields in Argentina are up on the year, and some second crop areas in Brazil need rain. The USDA’s updated supply and demand projections are out May 10^th, with CONAB’s next look at Brazil’s crops set for May 14^th. That USDA report will include the first official look at the 2026/27 marketing year. Given the questions about planted area because of low survey responses this winter, acreage will continue to be a question mark until at least June, if not later. Corn was largely able to ignore Friday’s losses in crude oil and has mostly decoupled because of volatility.

The wheat complex was mixed, closing out the week with solid gains at the three U.S. pits. Forecasts have improved rain chances for parts of the hard red winter region, but some damage has been done and there’s a lot of talk about increased abandonment. The soft red winter crop, in comparison, looks good, but portions of the Eastern Midwest might be getting too wet. Minneapolis is keeping an eye on potential spring wheat planting delays in the northern U.S. Plains and the Canadian Prairies due to winter-type weather. Additionally, there are concerns about fertilizer availability for new crop planting, with Argentina and Australia being watched closely. Wheat is also monitoring winter wheat development and export trade for Russia and Ukraine.