Market News

Wheat mostly up, watching dollar, crop weather

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying. The trade was encouraged by planned tariff discussions between the U.S. and China. Details about upcoming negotiations are still fairly sparse, but any sign of a thaw in the trade battle is viewed as a positive. Stateside, planting and development weather looks mostly favorable in much of the region. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 88.7% of Argentina’s crop is harvested, 3.7% slower than the five-year average. Old crop export sales were above a week ago, but below average, at 7.1 million bushels, primarily to Bangladesh and Norway with small cancelations by unknown destinations and China. New crop sales were under last week at 100,000 bushels, all to Japan and Canada. ANEC sees Brazil’s June soybean exports at 12.55 million tons, compared to 13.83 million a year ago. Soybean meal and oil futures were mixed, adjusting spreads.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying. Corn’s monitoring development conditions, expecting generally beneficial weather for most of the region into mid-month. There are still acres left to be planted, and some areas will likely need to replant, but for now, the trade is expecting a big U.S. harvest in 2025, with the next projection out June 12^th. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil is also out on the 12^th, with first crop harvest in the late stages and the second crop harvest just getting underway. Old crop corn export sales were lower than average at 37.1 million bushels, with Mexico and Japan leading the way, while new crop sales were up on the week at 6.3 million bushels, mainly to unknown destinations and Japan. ANEC estimates Brazil’s corn exports for June at 835,660 tons, compared to 982,812 a year ago. The Renewable Fuels Association says ethanol exports for April were 172.3 million gallons, down 12% on the week and 8% on the year, with Canada, the European Union, India, South Korea, and the United Kingdom taking the top slots, while DDGS exports of 894,197 tons were 13% below March, mostly to Mexico, South Korea, and Vietnam. The year-to-date ethanol export pace is 10% ahead of last year, while the DDGS export pace is 7% behind 2024.

The wheat complex was mixed, mostly modestly higher, with some help from the mostly lower trade in the dollar during the session. There’s more rain in the near-term forecast for parts of the Southern U.S. Plains, while the Northern U.S. Plains and Canadian Prairies could see rain next week. Dry conditions are an issue in parts of China and the Black Sea region, with the trade also watching weather in Argentina, Australia, and Europe. 2024/25 U.S. wheat export sales were a net reduction of -1.8 million bushels following a series of cancelations, while 2025/26 sales of 16.3 million bushels were led by unknown destinations and Nigeria. With just a couple of reporting days left in 2024/25, the pace of U.S. wheat exports is ahead of 2023/24, but still reflects the hefty competition on the global market. Given the probably crop loss in China, the trade’s going to watching the eventual delivery destination of the recent new crop sales to unknown destinations very closely.