Market News

Wheat moves higher on lower dollar, weather concerns

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying, but not enough to escape a lower week-to-week close. Argentina’s crop rating was down on the week, even with improved rainfall in some areas. That justifies some recent declines in crop production projections and could set the stage for more once harvest gets into full swing. Harvest conditions in Brazil are generally good and their beans are at a discount to U.S. supplies. There’s been some talk over the past few days of China buying soybeans from Argentina. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower, adjusting product spreads. The NOPA member crush for January is out Tuesday, projected at 204.536 million bushels, which would be up on the year, with oil stocks seen at 1.236 billion pounds, which would be down.

Corn was mixed, mostly modestly higher, adjusting spreads ahead of the holiday weekend, but still closing higher on the week. Corn is monitoring development conditions in Argentina and the second crop corn planting pace in Brazil. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are out March 11^th, with CONAB’s new outlook for Brazil set for the 13^th. The White House says reciprocal tariffs against key trading partners might not go into effect until April. That’s in addition to potential tariffs against Canada and Mexico starting in March, and the current tariffs against China. Brazil is expected to be a target for reciprocals because of their tariff on ethanol. Colombia bought 100,000 tons of 2024/25 U.S. corn ahead of the open. Colombia is the second biggest buyer of U.S. corn in the Western Hemisphere, after Mexico. A bill to allow year-round, nationwide E15 use has been reintroduced in the U.S. Senate.

The wheat complex was sharply higher on speculative and technical buying, along with the lower trade in the dollar during the session, pulling contracts to a higher weekly finish. Winterkill is a possibility in parts of the Midwest and Plains with another Arctic blast in the forecast. The big question is whether or not some areas will see forecasted snow, a few of which were already facing winterkill concerns after January’s weather. Still, it’s hard to quantify damage until the crop emerges from dormancy. The trade’s waiting to see what happens with talks between Russia and Ukraine, while watching development conditions in the Black Sea region and Europe. France’s Ag Ministry says 73% of soft winter wheat is in good to excellent condition, 5% more than a year ago. Russia’s grain export cap officially goes into effect Saturday, February 15^th.