Market News

Wheat rises, watching global trade, weather

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying. Hot, dry weather in some key growing areas will likely have an impact on crop ratings. The crop is developing faster than average, putting yields in potential peril from this weather pattern, especially in northern and western growing portions of the Midwest into the Plains. The June NOPA member crush was above pre-report estimates at 214.3 million bushels, 15.4% larger than last year, while soybean oil stocks were below what analysts were anticipating heading into the report. Also, on the demand side of things, the trade is waiting for the USDA’s weekly export sales report, out Thursday morning. U.S. prices have become more competitive and China has shown strong interest in new crop U.S. beans recently. ANEC is still expecting a strong month for soybean exports, which are now pegged at 13.76 million tons, compared to last week’s guess of 12.26 million. Soybean meal and oil futures were up on crush demand and the gains in beans.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying. Corn is monitoring crop weather and the potential effects of a hotter, drier pattern on yield. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production averaged 1.04 million barrels per day, down 53,000 on the week and 47,000 on the year, while stocks came out at 24.391 million barrels, up 463,000 from the week before and 756,000 from a year ago, and exports averaged 81,000 barrels per day, falling 119,000 from the week before and 13,000 from last year. Part of the support can also be tied to Brazil temporarily raising their domestic ethanol blend level, potentially taking some corn off the export market. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out August 12^th, with CONAB’s next look at Brazil’s crops set for August 13^th. For now, ANEC sees July corn exports by Brazil at 3.44 million tons, compared to the previous projection of 2.49 million tons.

The wheat complex was sharply higher on speculative and technical buying. Slower movement of Russian wheat out of the Black Sea region might boost U.S. wheat exports. Recent actions in Russia’s war on Ukraine have comprised a major route for a significant amount of global business. IKAR and SovEcon project Russia’s wheat exports for July at 2 million tons, cuts of 20% and 13%, respectively following the slowdown. The trade’s also monitoring the impact of hot, dry weather on spring wheat in the U.S. and wheat in general in Western Europe. France’s AgriMer now has 2026 soft wheat production at 32 million tons, 4% less than last year. The smaller U.S. winter wheat crop and likely decline in global production are also bullish factors. The trade is monitoring Argentina, Australia, and Canada as well. The European Commission says soft wheat exports have started the 2026/27 marketing year on a slow note, down 62% from early in 2025/26 at 214,904 tons. The USDA’s attaché in Kazakhstan estimates 2026/27 wheat production at 15 million tons, compared to the 2025/26 total of 19.326 million tons on lower planted area and an anticipated decline in yield due to weather issues.