Market News

Wheat sees big gains on smaller U.S. crop estimate

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying, ending the week in positive territory. The USDA did raise U.S. production following the June acreage update, but old crop stocks were down and new crop was steady, despite that bigger crop guess. The USDA did increase export expectations for both the 2025/26 and 2026/27 marketing years, while leaving domestic crush unchanged. Globally, the USDA left new crop production in South America unchanged and raised the export outlook for Brazil slightly, while also expecting higher imports by China. With this set of numbers out of the way, soybeans are back to focusing on U.S. development conditions and demand. China bought 264,000 tons of new crop U.S. beans ahead of the open. That pushed the announced sales total for the week to 992,000 tons, most of that for 2026/27 delivery to China. The USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition numbers are out Monday afternoon. Soybean meal and oil futures were up on the strength in beans. The USDA made no major changes to new crop supply and demand expectations for soybean products.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying, ensuring week-to-week gains. Production was up on the month following acreage changes, while old and new crop stocks fell sharply. On the old crop side of things, USDA raised feed and residual use, and lowered food, seed, and industrial use, with all of that coming out of corn for ethanol production. On the new crop side, month-to-month, aside from the cut to old crop stocks, the big changes were production and slightly higher exports. Globally, for 2025/26, the USDA sees a larger crop, and exports for Argentina, also upping production for South Africa and Southeast Asia, while cutting production in Mexico and imports by China. For 2026/27, the USDA raised production for Canada and lowered production for the European Union. The trade continues to have concerns about a hotter, drier weather pattern in some areas potentially impacting yield. Corn is also monitoring harvest activity in Argentina and Brazil. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil is set for the 14^th, while the USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out August 12^th.

The wheat complex was sharply higher on fund and technical buying, adding to what would have already been a higher weekly finish. The USDA expects winter wheat production to be down 29% on the year, with the spring wheat crop 4% lower. As much as anything, this report reinforced trade suspicions and could continue to be a bullish background factor as the winter wheat harvest moves forward and the spring wheat crop develops. U.S. and world wheat ending stocks were tighter. For the U.S., the decline was due to lower beginning stocks due to adjustments to seed, feed, and export uses, along with the cut in crop size. Globally, production was down due to a smaller crop in Canada, along with the U.S., which canceled out higher expectations for Russia and Ukraine. Exports were down for Canada, up for Argentina, Russia, and Ukraine.