Market News

Wheat sees bounce on weather, dollar

Soybeans were mixed. There is a lot of talk about tariff negotiations during the session, with no official changes were reported. New higher U.S. tariffs against were still set to go effect this Wednesday and Beijing doesn’t seem to be backing off its rhetoric either. The White House says a number of nations want to negotiate, but details have been sparse, at least publicly. Late harvest conditions in South America look mostly favorable. Brazil’s harvest is approaching the 90% complete market. CONAB’s new projections for Brazil and the USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are both out Thursday. The USDA’s attaché for Argentina estimates 2025/26 production at 49.5 million tons, compared to 49 million for 2024/25, with an improvement in yield expected to cancel out a decline in planted area. Soybean meal was up and bean oil was down on the adjustment of product spreads. Bean oil picked up additional pressure from a lower move in crude oil.

Corn was mixed. Traders are monitoring the tariff situation and U.S. planting conditions. Spain bought 240,000 tons of old crop U.S. corn ahead of the open. Just over the halfway point of 2024/25, Spain is the biggest buyer of corn in the European Union, stepping up purchases because of tighter supplies and logistical issues with some other traditional suppliers. It remains to be seen how much tariff talk between the U.S. and E.U. will impact business. The Mexico exemption does limit some of the demand uncertainty and talks with Japan have reportedly gone well. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production, supply, and export numbers are out Wednesday.

The wheat complex was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying, along with a lower move in the dollar during the session. 48% of U.S. winter wheat is rated good to excellent, 8% below a year ago, with more warm, dry weather on tap for the Plains and further investigation into crop damage from flooding in the Eastern Midwest likely pulling that number lower. Meanwhile, spring wheat planting is just getting underway at 3% complete. The trade also has an eye on spring wheat planting conditions in Canada and the seemingly stalled ceasefire negotiations in Russia’s war on Ukraine. Crop conditions continue to be a concern in parts of the Black Sea region as well, with spring grain planting ongoing.