Market News

Wheat sees gains Friday, watching weather

Soybeans were modestly lower on fund and technical selling, adding slightly to the week’s losses. Near-term weather forecasts continue to generally look favorable in much of the region. China bought 238,000 tons of new crop U.S. beans ahead of the open. That was largely a non-issue because of recent trade rumors, but the recent improvement in demand from the world’s biggest buyer of beans is a positive, as President Trump and President Xi are scheduled to meet in Washington D.C. in late September. China’s General Administration of Customs says July soybean imports were 11.48 million tons, down 1.6% on the year, and Sinograin is set to offer another 516,000 tons of previously purchased soybeans for auction August 12^th. Brazil continues to be an aggressive exporter of soybeans, shipping a record 13.401 million tons in July, with cumulative exports for the current marketing year 12.5% higher than this time last marketing year. ANEC sees Brazil’s August soybean exports at 9.74 million tons, up from the year ago total of 8.11 million tons. Soybean meal futures were lower and soybean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was mixed, closing out the week modestly lower. Corn is monitoring development weather ahead of the USDA’s updated production estimate on the 12^th. The trade will not only be looking at yield projections following generally hot, dry weather during July, but will also be paying close attention to any adjustments for planted area because of the inclusion of FSA data. Corn is also watching Brazil’s second crop harvest, with CONAB’s next set of numbers for Brazil’s crop out on the 13^th. According to Brazil’s Trade Ministry, July corn exports were 1.943 million tons, down 20% on the year. ANEC projects Brazil’s corn exports for August at 4.08 million tons, compared to 7.34 million last year. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 73.7% of Argentina’s corn crop is harvested. France’s AgriMer estimates France’s corn crop at 9 million tons, a drop of 35% on the year due to weather, and potentially the smallest crop since 1980. 31% of the crop is in good to excellent condition. Friday morning, Mexico purchased 286,097 tons of U.S. corn, with 29,808 tons for 2026/27 delivery and 256,289 tons for 2027/28.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying, helping nearby months avoid a weekly decline. Traders are watching the spring wheat harvest and weather ahead of winter wheat planting as that harvest wraps up. The USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition report is out Monday, August 10^th at 4 Eastern/3 Central. The trade is also keeping an eye on the Black Sea export slowdown as Russia’s war on Ukraine continues to limit traffic in that key waterway, in addition to some crop weather concerns in portions of Argentina, Australia, and Europe. There are some early signs of stress due to hot, dry weather in the Canadian Prairies. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says 2026/27 wheat exports could fall to 8.3 million tons, considerably smaller than earlier projections due to the war. France’s AgriMer sees 2026 winter wheat production at 31.8 million tons, 4% below a year ago. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 97% of Argentina’s crop is normal to excellent, but the El Nino pattern could have an impact later in the season.