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Wheat sees slightly rally, soybeans, corn close lower
Soybeans were modestly lower on speculative and technical selling. Severe storms and stressful temperatures have likely had some impact on the crop, but development conditions have been better in some areas, so the trade sentiment, for now, is everything should balance out. The USDA’s next production update is out August 12th, along with the monthly supply and demand estimates. The USDA says 184 million bushels of soybeans were crushed during June 2024, 8 million less than in May, but 9 million more than June 2023, with similar patterns for meal and oil production. Meal and oil stocks were below the previous month and last year. Nearby soybean meal was up, deferred months were down on bull spreading, while bean oil was lower on the losses in crude oil. China did buy 132,000 tons of new crop U.S. soybeans Thursday morning, reflecting the more competitive pricing for U.S. beans for fall/winter delivery, even as China continues to buy beans from Brazil for this summer. The overall pace of new crop U.S. sales remains slower than normal. The USDA says old crop sales last week were 13.8 million bushels, mainly to Germany and the Netherlands with a notable cancelation by unknown destinations. New crop sales were 23.2 million bushels, with unknown leading the way, followed by Mexico. Brazil’s ANEC estimates July soybean exports at 9.76 million tons, compared to the previous guess of 10.43 million.
Corn was modestly lower on speculative and technical selling. There’s likely some storm and heat stress damage, but the full extent won’t be known for a while. Crop conditions in most of the Eastern Corn Belt remain generally favorable. The trade is expected at least some adjustment to acreage in this next round of USDA production numbers, with any significant adjustments to yield likely to be tabled until harvest results start being reported. The USDA says 442.346 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol production in June, down 3% from the prior month, but up slightly from last year, with DDGS production of 1,793,655 tons, a drop of 10% from May, but a gain of less than 1% from June 2023. Old crop export sales last week were a marketing year low at 6.6 million bushels, with solid sales to Mexico and South Korea offset by a handful of cancelations led by unknown. New crop sales of 28 million bushels were mainly to Mexico and unknown. Brazil’s ANEC sees July corn exports at 4.73 million tons, compared to the prior projection of 4.56 million tons.
The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying, rallying slightly after some early mixed activity. More heat and dry weather stress is likely in many spring wheat growing areas of the U.S. and Canada. The crop is still in good shape, but that can be misleading, and that recent spring wheat crop tour was prior to this sustained shift in conditions. The trade is also monitoring weather impacts on production and harvest in Argentina, France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine. U.S. export sales were down on the week at 10.5 million bushels, but soft red winter continues to look competitive against some other origins. The bulk of the weekly total was soft red winter and hard red spring, with Indonesia and the Philippines the biggest overall buyers. The USDA says 226.006 million bushels of wheat were used to produce flour in the second quarter of 2024, less than 1% under the first quarter, but 2% above Q2 2023.
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