Market News

Wheat sees solid Friday gains on dollar weakness, weather questions

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying, cementing the higher weekly finish. Beans are watching weather in Argentina and Brazil, while waiting for any signs of new demand from China. That’s a big question for beans right now because of tariff uncertainties and Brazil’s price discount to the U.S. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand numbers is out March 10^th, while CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil is set for March 13^th. Contracts are overbought but crush demand is strong. Soybean meal futures were lower and bean oil was steady to higher on the adjustment of product spreads. Bean oil had an up and down day, eventually finding support in biodiesel demand expectations and the strength in crude oil, which was up on the possibility of conflict in Iran.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying, pulling the most active months to a week-to-week gain. Rain chances for Argentina are scattered, while parts of Brazil are too dry for ideal second crop development. Any significant loss of quality in South America could set the stage for even better demand for U.S. corn globally. Unknown destinations bought 257,000 tons of 2025/26 U.S. corn ahead of the Friday open. That followed up on Japan’s purchase Thursday for 2026/27 and 2027/28 delivery. Domestically, the trade has an eye on conditions ahead of widespread planting.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying, along with dollar weakness. Still, it was a mixed finish for the week, with the most active May Chicago losing some ground, even as May Kansas City and Minneapolis saw good gains. Heavy rain is having an impact on conditions and potentially quality in France, while Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine continues to have an impact on exports out of the Black Sea region. Most of Europe is expected to see a hotter generally drier near-term pattern. Stateside, there’s precipitation in the forecast for portions of the Midwest and Plains, but it could miss some of the drier areas of the U.S. hard red winter region. The big test for winter wheat is conditions when the crop emerges from dormancy, which could happen early in parts of the Northern Hemisphere.