Market News

Wheat sees support from oversold signals, lower dollar

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying, but still posting a week-to-week decline. Contracts extended their bounce from Thursday with help from a lower move in the dollar. There’s been a lot of talk about tariff negotiations with key trading partners, especially China, but no real public progress. Additionally, any resolution to the broad ongoing tariff dispute would likely take months, not days. Soybeans continue to monitor U.S. planting progress, along with harvest activity in Argentina. Brazil’s harvest is close to the finish line, if not essentially wrapped up for the year. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil’s crops is scheduled for May 15^th. Soybean meal futures were higher and bean oil was lower on product spread trade. Bean oil had additional pressure from the lower move in crude oil.

Corn was mostly higher on commercial spread adjustments, closing out the week in the red. Corn is monitoring the U.S. planting pace, anticipating generally good progress over the next several days. The USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition numbers are out Monday at 4 Eastern/3 Central and are expected reflect the mostly favorable planting and emergence. There could be a lag in both for some key states due to wet, somewhat cool conditions, but again, on balance, things generally look favorable. Feed, fuel, and export demand continue to be solid sources of support. The USDA’s attaché in Canada projects 2025/26 corn production at 15.385 million tons, compared to 15.345 million in 2024/25, but does note some areas did see early delays due to cooler temperatures and saturated soil, which could have some impact total planted area.

The wheat complex was higher on commercial and technical buying, in addition to the lower trade in the dollar during the session, while ending the week mixed. Wheat was oversold and due for a bounce after the recent run to new lows in Kansas City. The recent decline in U.S. wheat prices have made some types more competitive on the export market, with the new marketing year getting underway June 1^st. Forecasts have more rain in the Plains for much of the coming week, potentially boosting hard red winter wheat ratings in southern and central areas and soil moisture in northern parts of the region during spring planting. Those potential benefits seem to be outweighing any concern about excessively wet conditions in some soft red winter growing areas. The USDA will issue a domestic production update on the 12^th, along with the regular monthly supply, demand, and production numbers. Wheat’s also watching planting and development conditions in Australia, Canada, China, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. The USDA’s attaché for Canada estimates 2025/26 wheat production at 35.674 million tons, compared to 34.958 million in 2024/25 on higher planted area using a three-year average for yield. Exports are seen at 26.5 million tons next marketing year, compared to 26 million this marketing year.