Market News

Wheat, soybeans see support from weak dollar

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying. Soybeans are watching rain chances for Argentina and monitoring crop quality concerns in parts of Brazil. The USDA did raise its production estimate for Brazil this week, with the next guess out March 10^th, while CONAB’s new outlook for Brazil’s crop is set for this Thursday, February 12^th. The trade is waiting for any signs of new export demand from China ahead of next week’s Lunar New Year celebration. The USDA’s weekly U.S. sales numbers are also out Thursday morning. ANEC now has Brazil’s February soybean exports at 11.71 million tons, compared to last week’s guess of 11.42 million. Soybean meal futures were higher and soybean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was mixed on bear spreading. Corn is looking at weather most of South America, with rain in the forecast for dry parts of Argentina and southern Brazil. Most of what’s been impacted in South America was either planted early or part of Brazil’s first crop, so if a wetter pattern does emerge, it’d benefit the bulk of production. However, the slide in crop ratings for Argentina since the start of the year bears watching. ANEC projects Brazil’s corn exports for February at 953,217 tons, compared to 793,364 a week ago. Unknown destinations bought 230,560 tons of 2025/26 U.S. corn ahead of the open. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production averaged 1.11 million barrels per day, up 154,000 on the week and 28,000 on the year, with stocks of 25.247 million barrels, 111,000 more than the prior week, but 445,000 less than a year ago, and exports averaged 137,000 barrels per day, a dip of 79,000 from the week before and 13,000 from last year. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry expects the 2025 corn harvest to wrap up in March after facing extended weather delays and says there could be a decline in quality.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying, along with weakness in the dollar during most of the session. Warmer weather across the U.S. Plains could bring winter wheat out of dormancy, leaving it potentially vulnerable to damage if conditions turn cold again, with mixed rain chances for most of the region into the end of the month. Any significant upside could be limited by the ample global supply. Wheat is also watching overwintering conditions in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, including Russia and Ukraine.