Market News

Wheat surges on drought, input cost concerns

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling. Planting weather mostly looks favorable in much of the Midwest, which should keep the overall pace well ahead of average. Beans are waiting for more details on a planned trade meeting with China next month. The meeting has been delayed at least once by the military actions in Iran and the Middle East and could be delayed again if the conflict continues. China did not officially buy any U.S. soybeans last week, continuing to rely on South America, especially Brazil. 2025/26 U.S. bean sales did see a week-to-week improvement, but were lower than average at 13.4 million bushels, primarily to Egypt and Japan. 2026/27 sales were routine at 200,000 bushels, all to Malaysia. Soybean meal and oil futures were mixed, consolidating. Soybeans, soybean oil, and corn, all largely ignored the rally in crude oil. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 10% of Argentina’s soybean crop is harvested, while Brazil’s harvest is creeping towards the finish. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers are out May 10^th, with CONAB’s next look at Brazil on May 14^th.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying, along with spillover from wheat. Corn is watching U.S. planting weather, expecting some rain delays over the next few days, but that should be mostly beneficial long-term. There are still some lingering questions about how many acres will be planted to corn in 2026, and there won’t be any official answer for a couple of months. Old crop export sales were down on the week at 51.8 million bushels, mainly to South Korea and Japan, and new crop sales were strong at 17.3 million bushels, entirely to Mexico. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 26.5% of Argentina’s corn crop is harvested. Dry portions of Brazil’s second corn crop could see at least some relief sometime soon.

The wheat complex was higher on speculative and technical buying, with Kansas City up sharply. The U.S. Drought Monitor says 70% of U.S. winter wheat growing areas are in some stage of drought, 2% more than last week, with forecasted rain in the Plains possibly too late to do much for a large swath of the hard red winter crop. Soft red winter conditions continue to be relatively good. There’s talk about lower global acreage due to rising input costs, which has the market watching Australia in particular very closely because of their primary fertilizer sources. The trade is also watching development weather in Russia and Ukraine, along with conditions ahead of widespread planting in Argentina and Canada. Old crop U.S. export sales were lower than average at 4.7 million bushels. Japan and Nigeria were the big buyers, with a notable cancelation by unknown destinations. New crop sales were 300,000 bushels, to South Korea and Honduras.